Prediction markets (Finance/Politics)

core.prediction_snapshots

One price per market per day, from first sighting on UW's unusual list to resolution. seen_via says whether the market was on the list that day.

895 rowsCSV — whole table, not this view

Sources in this table

uw_predictions895 rowsexportable

active:category = Politics×outcome = No×sorted by as_of ↑×

asset_idtext	as_of ↑date	markettext	outcometext	categorytext	resolves_attimestamp with time zone	mid_pricenumeric	best_bidnumeric	best_asknumeric

998624084800916908187125803907393722693880743269959570345…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-21 19:59	0.935000	0.930000	0.940000	0.010000	306830.16	2026-09-14 18:32	0.930000	14918.7981	0.590877	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"99862408480091690818712580390739372269388074326995957034508591909408581976106"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
971077701875876835068156269748881633246228369880140330220…	2026-09-14	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-06-29 20:00	0.950000	0.940000	0.960000	0.020000	563513.53	2026-09-14 18:32	0.950000	7978.1395	0.120000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"97107770187587683506815626974888163324622836988014033022064807674186740440043"}
970509217404161929963898066937425756081113288191854931631…	2026-09-14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the S…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.875000	0.870000	0.880000	0.010000	5398590.93	2026-09-14 18:32	0.870000	2522621.6071	4.372248	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"97050921740416192996389806693742575608111328819185493163189880975611314813724"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
949094972047914222189533269894338488040637872598538898451…	2026-09-14	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russ…	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.797500	0.794000	0.801000	0.007000	13181616.81	2026-09-14 18:32	0.794000	21510.9810	0.687345	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"94909497204791422218953326989433848804063787259853889845128791095089809741999"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
919981947261369276324504834246140128906914465092627504521…	2026-09-14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September…	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:55	0.987000	0.986000	0.988000	0.002000	1875379.82	2026-09-14 18:32	0.988000	46191.5622	0.120000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"91998194726136927632450483424614012890691446509262750452187052878486812367191"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
917430962400008281527885718568527360130152811774137593239…	2026-09-14	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.990500	0.990000	0.991000	0.001000	5797195.92	2026-09-14 18:32	0.991000	8357.7223	0.120000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"91743096240000828152788571856852736013015281177413759323948075481950472145047"}
890464555071734997565252070477518833781914095052903114895…	2026-09-14	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz bet…	No	Politics	2026-09-13 19:59	0.949500	0.931000	0.968000	0.037000	86267.52	2026-09-14 18:32	0.930000	14111.3226	0.222222	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"89046455507173499756525207047751883378191409505290311489587600504516758912800"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
880953920883800189888111289050566854206816842477002442212…	2026-09-14	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elec…	No	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.909500	0.909000	0.910000	0.001000	331894.36	2026-09-14 18:32	0.909000	10670.7596	1.940399	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"88095392088380018988811128905056685420681684247700244221273733002608971216833"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
834382159788561801458728058213909198406214350871041318486…	2026-09-14	Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.720000	0.700000	0.740000	0.040000	4410.37	2026-09-14 18:32	0.670000	17897.0550	0.899221	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"8343821597885618014587280582139091984062143508710413184869540112147713995559"}
814704650806561500884828862983567836210628029191100967630…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	—	0.999000	—	—	27284301.56	2026-09-14 18:32	0.999000	77887.7843	0.857143	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"81470465080656150088482886298356783621062802919110096763062861781139262816347"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
790856282012811224818835785948115945922608242523730597970…	2026-09-14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-04-29 20:00	0.943500	0.943000	0.944000	0.001000	991143.27	2026-09-14 18:33	0.941000	10320.8441	0.028189	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"79085628201281122481883578594811594592260824252373059797032000397035131450743"}
789070047415782903829219194483768472055726980880458675997…	2026-09-14	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	No	Politics	2026-09-14 19:59	0.997500	0.997000	0.998000	0.001000	206461.70	2026-09-14 18:32	0.997000	13795.4679	1.482574	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"7890700474157829038292191944837684720557269808804586759979391214043839466430"}
786323950833106707343152055020612496023190696539159323201…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.635000	0.630000	0.640000	0.010000	1995184.60	2026-09-14 18:32	0.640000	40321.4436	0.225820	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"78632395083310670734315205502061249602319069653915932320155846460019107676757"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
777376030497043714019851430302035511306245207849258154732…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.655000	0.650000	0.660000	0.010000	2509740.50	2026-09-14 18:32	0.660000	14028.8873	1.460952	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"77737603049704371401985143030203551130624520784925815473217168646825527075459"}
741952205861292373492588031790826345422845035383200006379…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.992500	0.992000	0.993000	0.001000	28511397.32	2026-09-14 18:32	0.992000	328920.7086	0.983857	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"74195220586129237349258803179082634542284503538320000637909015632982564961602"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
740765688468667141425038470267607027135556437780387902204…	2026-09-14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.855000	0.850000	0.860000	0.010000	2775277.99	2026-09-14 18:32	0.850000	6651.2545	0.153257	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"74076568846866714142503847026760702713555643778038790220454009063912340064073"}
736219880206384639899751465585761631088358740412345817490…	2026-09-14	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.485000	0.480000	0.490000	0.010000	404468.56	2026-09-14 18:32	0.480000	11684.2964	1.320000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"73621988020638463989975146558576163108835874041234581749056831089553559830214"}
730563024980408563549639986990576937229430271615903444732…	2026-09-14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.962500	0.962000	0.963000	0.001000	13354002.71	2026-09-14 18:30	0.963000	10995.6901	2.806916	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"7305630249804085635496399869905769372294302716159034447326228509068694952392"}
694986485568188058349458951986700723447215101278306606680…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.335000	0.330000	0.340000	0.010000	48478.53	2026-09-14 18:31	0.330000	9997.9318	3.960000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"69498648556818805834945895198670072344721510127830660668063083785228750351236"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
694146134655431366360774186239195771903000925636070848554…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-14 19:59	0.997500	0.997000	0.998000	0.001000	263355.36	2026-09-14 18:31	0.998000	29883.9374	1.960101	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"69414613465543136636077418623919577190300092563607084855456415038243186412684"}
688818401091142455217972750255962569283846132511084298084…	2026-09-14	Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	No	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.934000	0.929000	0.939000	0.010000	131961.78	2026-09-14 18:32	0.928000	5048.5942	0.268490	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"68881840109114245521797275025596256928384613251108429808491092208111156621485"}
639152872719406880648701729914364897755875413354573703553…	2026-09-14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.355000	0.350000	0.360000	0.010000	502740.28	2026-09-14 18:32	0.350000	5046.9278	0.640000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63915287271940688064870172991436489775587541335457370355314489349033951709373"}
619623807350458713513525639477460371897673980699607764550…	2026-09-14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in …	No	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.762500	0.762000	0.763000	0.001000	493952.16	2026-09-14 18:32	0.762000	11186.1773	0.412083	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61962380735045871351352563947746037189767398069960776455040567750304235670037"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
578762142969530407059149543522197424236289121736534094226…	2026-09-14	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the nex…	No	Politics	2027-04-29 20:00	0.899000	0.897000	0.901000	0.004000	425760.72	2026-09-14 18:32	0.897000	8794.2431	0.493827	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57876214296953040705914954352219742423628912173653409422651199206441027151468"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
572162725645295484646864636912368119919560322012937867903…	2026-09-14	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.969500	0.969000	0.970000	0.001000	5127626.55	2026-09-14 18:33	0.969000	8440.2734	0.006887	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57216272564529548464686463691236811991956032201293786790337952253964682584376"}
564659332200820228357008170639461746359097255077344162485…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.855000	0.850000	0.860000	0.010000	1759598.60	2026-09-14 18:32	0.850000	19137.7028	1.023030	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"56465933220082022835700817063946174635909725507734416248556389304448520396318"}
551337802515919133770431646071004302666890163620451140238…	2026-09-14	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.845000	0.840000	0.850000	0.010000	487320.12	2026-09-14 18:31	0.840000	5954.4028	0.349885	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"5513378025159191337704316460710043026668901636204511402381351948151562535480"}
545359399362524949902377235799883362379103362810082918083…	2026-09-14	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.780000	0.770000	0.790000	0.020000	208472.93	2026-09-14 18:32	0.790000	10974.9583	1.304609	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708"}
502305252920113973616660321285575666878111844985156935639…	2026-09-14	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.995000	0.994000	0.996000	0.002000	1241089.34	2026-09-14 18:33	0.995000	25177.0769	0.126727	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"50230525292011397361666032128557566687811184498515693563902400561445822555625"}
499522872446145757347239137576490879020243392380071875856…	2026-09-14	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sw…	No	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.125000	0.120000	0.130000	0.010000	331318.76	2026-09-14 18:32	0.120000	8580.6596	3.666061	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49952287244614575734723913757649087902024339238007187585607375183859292977482"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
496801044077036599910134990819084835354450017698659671393…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.765000	0.760000	0.770000	0.010000	55537.98	2026-09-14 18:32	0.770000	24238.5819	3.828634	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49680104407703659991013499081908483535445001769865967139333008259807233372469"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
487274313143330882436930169296233637104889801528335441569…	2026-09-14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.825000	0.820000	0.830000	0.010000	4997095.49	2026-09-14 18:32	0.820000	23325.7799	1.320321	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48727431314333088243693016929623363710488980152833544156961659445129455301311"}
481532081438944336054066229267133997016025181446263698597…	2026-09-14	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.974500	0.966000	0.983000	0.017000	240005.54	2026-09-14 18:32	0.970000	6847.0507	0.923295	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48153208143894433605406622926713399701602518144626369859726576312729177555328"}
432276661560081946332291951174751235006336742500725879276…	2026-09-14	Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.976500	0.975000	0.978000	0.003000	2520004.58	2026-09-14 18:32	0.980000	13386.8071	0.323074	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"43227666156008194633229195117475123500633674250072587927676970641387990170901"}
420387758661982126154916501148818182196651399817632076991…	2026-09-14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.385000	0.380000	0.390000	0.010000	3026455.21	2026-09-14 18:32	0.380000	18541.7482	0.120000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"42038775866198212615491650114881818219665139981763207699110491615333273795415"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
418644974118781917669675814224329617508084409911740855163…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.991000	0.990000	0.992000	0.002000	27919453.32	2026-09-14 18:32	0.992000	6835.7776	0.006727	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
397053449283490515282354373201198287046390520453987045875…	2026-09-14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.795000	0.790000	0.800000	0.010000	211655.45	2026-09-14 18:32	0.800000	8543.8528	0.162602	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"39705344928349051528235437320119828704639052045398704587587139370251349054590"}
391475245227075364569107479926216714330328381414391932648…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.369000	0.365000	0.373000	0.008000	18919238.99	2026-09-14 18:32	0.368000	7756.9128	1.293198	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"39147524522707536456910747992621671433032838141439193264830818731544404472030"}
362502716815050001322405734737902286252635598084107031033…	2026-09-14	Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 20…	No	Politics	2026-10-04 20:00	0.965500	0.959000	0.972000	0.013000	232721.26	2026-09-14 18:33	0.970000	9490.7420	0.006944	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"36250271681505000132240573473790228625263559808410703103366953147685418684739"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
352027851756244737431333253503369396971453932457335003009…	2026-09-14	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.885000	0.880000	0.890000	0.010000	278741.16	2026-09-14 18:32	0.890000	111169.9542	1.035758	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"35202785175624473743133325350336939697145393245733500300951742752216521350176"}
315060014092775233121926514701955241670901019430800632739…	2026-09-14	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 14:30	0.993500	0.993000	0.994000	0.001000	1379297.37	2026-09-14 18:32	0.993000	24450.9416	0.006720	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"31506001409277523312192651470195524167090101943080063273985704767232411431594"}
311380583542820966302653682644519869049750637804238147946…	2026-09-14	Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next R…	No	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.974500	0.973000	0.976000	0.003000	479037.91	2026-09-14 18:32	0.975000	19236.0879	0.299362	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"3113805835428209663026536826445198690497506378042381479460524760612035145599"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
288195718996381969070989938731295127198607690575770111451…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.125000	0.120000	0.130000	0.010000	6749490.18	2026-09-14 18:32	0.120000	259975.3256	10.017143	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"2881957189963819690709899387312951271986076905757701114514025622922000576600"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
282394187726336451849246514349560008490783655668426295645…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.997500	0.997000	0.998000	0.001000	27577840.00	2026-09-14 18:32	0.998000	320497.2059	0.870530	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"28239418772633645184924651434956000849078365566842629564562475378531350731731"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
262062974541936244886106126167683073682570549428135415205…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.908500	0.908000	0.909000	0.001000	167841.09	2026-09-14 18:32	0.897000	11721.9222	1.837895	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"26206297454193624488610612616768307368257054942813541520512094726545017805639"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
253266682071087304738807951740232540902011392663220984641…	2026-09-14	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between Sep…	No	Politics	2026-09-13 19:59	0.950000	0.930000	0.970000	0.040000	92377.95	2026-09-14 18:32	0.940000	13345.2051	0.192464	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"25326668207108730473880795174023254090201139266322098464178579042361885439154"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
251144737232417240243666019627598828544045011868148192976…	2026-09-14	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	Politics	2026-09-04 19:59	0.042000	0.039000	0.045000	0.006000	463235.08	2026-09-14 18:32	0.038000	11453.4135	4.740000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"25114473723241724024366601962759882854404501186814819297691389024756879650626"}
229774404178191270977012679058342452855842773305709563007…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.988000	0.987000	0.989000	0.002000	223186.40	2026-09-14 18:32	0.988000	8257.9112	1.500222	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"22977440417819127097701267905834245285584277330570956300766252082258388506110"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
181258939106180995523200067738284698103715561257714681224…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.997000	0.996000	0.998000	0.002000	175776.40	2026-09-14 18:32	0.997000	22515.9612	1.006700	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"18125893910618099552320006773828469810371556125771468122492350319547540709643"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
151194742176521898059874813638291527341331488079078046624…	2026-09-14	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-18 23:59	0.110000	0.090000	0.130000	0.040000	119295.71	2026-09-14 18:32	0.090000	9798.2624	3.388571	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"15119474217652189805987481363829152734133148807907804662486639655176427373645"}