Prediction markets (Finance/Politics)

core.prediction_snapshots

One price per market per day, from first sighting on UW's unusual list to resolution. seen_via says whether the market was on the list that day.

759 rowsCSV — whole table, not this view

Sources in this table

uw_predictions759 rowsexportable

active:seen_via = tracked×sorted by as_of ↑×

asset_idtext	as_of ↑date	markettext	outcometext	categorytext	resolves_attimestamp with time zone	mid_pricenumeric	best_bidnumeric	best_asknumeric	spread

786323950833106707343152055020612496023190696539159323201…	2026-09-16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.545000	0.540000	0.550000	0.010000	4563392.56	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"78632395083310670734315205502061249602319069653915932320155846460019107676757"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
777376030497043714019851430302035511306245207849258154732…	2026-09-16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.675000	0.670000	0.680000	0.010000	2750963.01	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"77737603049704371401985143030203551130624520784925815473217168646825527075459"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
759490790723005116356036002065672277387031608559005477780…	2026-09-16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.375000	0.370000	0.380000	0.010000	911064.96	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"75949079072300511635603600206567227738703160855900547778099294726738851616000"}
740765688468667141425038470267607027135556437780387902204…	2026-09-16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.855000	0.850000	0.860000	0.010000	2991111.66	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"74076568846866714142503847026760702713555643778038790220454009063912340064073"}
736219880206384639899751465585761631088358740412345817490…	2026-09-16	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.355000	0.350000	0.360000	0.010000	979947.27	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"73621988020638463989975146558576163108835874041234581749056831089553559830214"}
730563024980408563549639986990576937229430271615903444732…	2026-09-16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.957000	0.956000	0.958000	0.002000	11769339.92	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"7305630249804085635496399869905769372294302716159034447326228509068694952392"}
639152872719406880648701729914364897755875413354573703553…	2026-09-16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.355000	0.350000	0.360000	0.010000	592950.61	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63915287271940688064870172991436489775587541335457370355314489349033951709373"}
622278478531323029432702918801560608806962262451080224857…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.710000	0.690000	0.730000	0.040000	1050276.08	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"6222784785313230294327029188015606088069622624510802248578044329127504364661"}
619623807350458713513525639477460371897673980699607764550…	2026-09-16	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in …	No	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.774500	0.774000	0.775000	0.001000	1006337.69	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61962380735045871351352563947746037189767398069960776455040567750304235670037"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
619560485363314289163847070597824802415581416085257056714…	2026-09-16	Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.145000	0.140000	0.150000	0.010000	170992.85	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61956048536331428916384707059782480241558141608525705671477344792920313779730"}
582122695178968840153384697752946899762026824309718829049…	2026-09-16	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	—	—	—	—	0.00	2026-09-15 14:03	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"58212269517896884015338469775294689976202682430971882904931336575860619991827"}	2026-09-16 20:45
578762142969530407059149543522197424236289121736534094226…	2026-09-16	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the nex…	No	Politics	2027-04-29 20:00	0.887500	0.881000	0.894000	0.013000	802565.89	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57876214296953040705914954352219742423628912173653409422651199206441027151468"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
572162725645295484646864636912368119919560322012937867903…	2026-09-16	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.969500	0.969000	0.970000	0.001000	5169045.07	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57216272564529548464686463691236811991956032201293786790337952253964682584376"}
564659332200820228357008170639461746359097255077344162485…	2026-09-16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.865000	0.860000	0.870000	0.010000	1860918.59	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"56465933220082022835700817063946174635909725507734416248556389304448520396318"}
551597227614180130441264142766806022703180008416906896848…	2026-09-16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.455000	0.450000	0.460000	0.010000	4563392.56	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
551337802515919133770431646071004302666890163620451140238…	2026-09-16	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.855000	0.850000	0.860000	0.010000	758352.69	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"5513378025159191337704316460710043026668901636204511402381351948151562535480"}
545359399362524949902377235799883362379103362810082918083…	2026-09-16	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.835000	0.830000	0.840000	0.010000	256964.99	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708"}
540572489883630359741431801948090827930110925108994000873…	2026-09-16	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Ru…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.992000	0.991000	0.993000	0.002000	22637551.83	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54057248988363035974143180194809082793011092510899400087326333477908849736030"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
540183727272525707669144952049465545783017838520968652115…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.962500	0.960000	0.965000	0.005000	389202.53	2026-09-16 20:43	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54018372727252570766914495204946554578301783852096865211527480718618130665409"}
502305252920113973616660321285575666878111844985156935639…	2026-09-16	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.994500	0.994000	0.995000	0.001000	1631662.46	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"50230525292011397361666032128557566687811184498515693563902400561445822555625"}
498210651814734197981469572674800155061027111606607186366…	2026-09-16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.775000	0.770000	0.780000	0.010000	611963.91	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49821065181473419798146957267480015506102711160660718636601116902870701340131"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
489970745072403596167117480645971014290842208022732690429…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.870500	0.862000	0.879000	0.017000	1123009.42	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48997074507240359616711748064597101429084220802273269042911597047117219823609"}
487274313143330882436930169296233637104889801528335441569…	2026-09-16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.825000	0.820000	0.830000	0.010000	5645898.55	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48727431314333088243693016929623363710488980152833544156961659445129455301311"}
451525146492131703771068342371472086444956779088956852157…	2026-09-16	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T a…	No	Finance	2026-12-31 18:55	0.768500	0.768000	0.769000	0.001000	100676.68	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"45152514649213170377106834237147208644495677908895685215785984082704434230216"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
439765119022681110416338667995550373303174273154540568470…	2026-09-16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.215000	0.210000	0.220000	0.010000	412685.49	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"43976511902268111041633866799555037330317427315454056847054364885183934986197"}
432276661560081946332291951174751235006336742500725879276…	2026-09-16	Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.981500	0.980000	0.983000	0.003000	10791031.58	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"43227666156008194633229195117475123500633674250072587927676970641387990170901"}
420387758661982126154916501148818182196651399817632076991…	2026-09-16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.465000	0.460000	0.470000	0.010000	5963475.43	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"42038775866198212615491650114881818219665139981763207699110491615333273795415"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
418644974118781917669675814224329617508084409911740855163…	2026-09-16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.993500	0.993000	0.994000	0.001000	38265382.26	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
412968407557101875946978682306523943163401318363485304920…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.987500	0.986000	0.989000	0.003000	3937395.76	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"41296840755710187594697868230652394316340131836348530492072496327848341834044"}
397053449283490515282354373201198287046390520453987045875…	2026-09-16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.810000	0.800000	0.820000	0.020000	282187.30	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"39705344928349051528235437320119828704639052045398704587587139370251349054590"}
391475245227075364569107479926216714330328381414391932648…	2026-09-16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.392000	0.391000	0.393000	0.002000	19136807.81	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"39147524522707536456910747992621671433032838141439193264830818731544404472030"}
362502716815050001322405734737902286252635598084107031033…	2026-09-16	Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 20…	No	Politics	2026-10-04 20:00	0.973000	0.970000	0.976000	0.006000	421664.51	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"36250271681505000132240573473790228625263559808410703103366953147685418684739"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
354804859281476944225223172981600811946037668651024881549…	2026-09-16	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	Finance	2027-06-30 20:00	0.530000	0.520000	0.540000	0.020000	125390.59	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"35480485928147694422522317298160081194603766865102488154902775756915955129166"}
347329888869815101678743898457088328086272843798401313512…	2026-09-16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.645000	0.640000	0.650000	0.010000	592650.61	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"34732988886981510167874389845708832808627284379840131351229635795767825787404"}
315060014092775233121926514701955241670901019430800632739…	2026-09-16	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 14:30	0.995000	0.994000	0.996000	0.002000	1326017.44	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"31506001409277523312192651470195524167090101943080063273985704767232411431594"}
311380583542820966302653682644519869049750637804238147946…	2026-09-16	Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next R…	No	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.965000	0.963000	0.967000	0.004000	730833.63	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"3113805835428209663026536826445198690497506378042381479460524760612035145599"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
237055837363487065339885108397594338210531138140257664220…	2026-09-16	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market…	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 19:59	0.914500	0.914000	0.915000	0.001000	2304406.44	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"23705583736348706533988510839759433821053113814025766422082583385077433681175"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
209157695206498922538911521168146450670700242231855179567…	2026-09-16	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next R…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.735000	0.730000	0.740000	0.010000	5976154.30	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20915769520649892253891152116814645067070024223185517956799957803974344024878"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
206372177129978645538674756692782387273268587041930910401…	2026-09-16	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first roun…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.449000	0.444000	0.454000	0.010000	852236.11	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20637217712997864553867475669278238727326858704193091040111183987981733729683"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
146966591495774779415947353517201867864922403144882182880…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.260000	0.250000	0.270000	0.020000	577546.52	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"1469665914957747794159473535172018678649224031448821828800084553716875180650"}
132892191280217821455206880329924942261509280652160414586…	2026-09-16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.625000	0.620000	0.630000	0.010000	906935.96	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"13289219128021782145520688032992494226150928065216041458658097032141632174656"}
115351075585746600277716377744935410125916932950844626289…	2026-09-16	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next R…	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.265000	0.260000	0.270000	0.010000	5869112.95	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"115351075585746600277716377744935410125916932950844626289798775482755919708780"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177…	2026-09-16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	Politics	2026-10-30 20:00	0.935000	0.930000	0.940000	0.010000	3375533.86	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177252036814838759682453"}
111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247…	2026-09-16	Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in …	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.865000	0.860000	0.870000	0.010000	305612.48	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247918168011182151346383"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059…	2026-09-16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.990500	0.990000	0.991000	0.001000	5398801.50	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059563486202499238579830"}
111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462…	2026-09-16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.535000	0.530000	0.540000	0.010000	5956767.43	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254…	2026-09-16	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.990500	0.990000	0.991000	0.001000	18203245.07	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254293945182185650232552"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518…	2026-09-16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.925000	0.920000	0.930000	0.010000	652889.87	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518430389053088403535939"}
108318438641119276756487723540426498152248706490125830253…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.740000	0.730000	0.750000	0.020000	577546.52	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"108318438641119276756487723540426498152248706490125830253351171007133496926091"}
108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650…	2026-09-16	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30…	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.993500	0.992000	0.995000	0.003000	590716.05	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650206295005007824881339"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45