Prediction markets (Finance/Politics)

core.prediction_snapshots

One price per market per day, from first sighting on UW's unusual list to resolution. seen_via says whether the market was on the list that day.

759 rowsCSV — whole table, not this view

Sources in this table

uw_predictions759 rowsexportable

active:source = uw_predictions×sorted by as_of ↑×

asset_idtext	as_of ↑date	markettext	outcometext	categorytext	resolves_attimestamp with time zone	mid_pricenumeric	best_bidnumeric	best_asknumeric

638425290687100057161693253803154703590477497866107786473…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.875000	0.870000	0.880000	0.010000	7224654.31	2026-09-15 20:44	0.870000	106121.2729	4.075758	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63842529068710005716169325380315470359047749786610778647370693404952498013178"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
622278478531323029432702918801560608806962262451080224857…	2026-09-15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.485000	0.470000	0.500000	0.030000	838092.40	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"6222784785313230294327029188015606088069622624510802248578044329127504364661"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
619623807350458713513525639477460371897673980699607764550…	2026-09-15	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in …	No	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.758500	0.755000	0.762000	0.007000	977564.01	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61962380735045871351352563947746037189767398069960776455040567750304235670037"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
619560485363314289163847070597824802415581416085257056714…	2026-09-15	Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.160000	0.150000	0.170000	0.020000	164683.96	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61956048536331428916384707059782480241558141608525705671477344792920313779730"}
582122695178968840153384697752946899762026824309718829049…	2026-09-15	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	—	—	—	—	0.00	2026-09-15 14:03	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"58212269517896884015338469775294689976202682430971882904931336575860619991827"}
578762142969530407059149543522197424236289121736534094226…	2026-09-15	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the nex…	No	Politics	2027-04-29 20:00	0.888000	0.881000	0.895000	0.014000	310096.28	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57876214296953040705914954352219742423628912173653409422651199206441027151468"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
577481380850227197603457723100407038485673778224001328420…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.001500	0.001000	0.002000	0.001000	27981819.59	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57748138085022719760345772310040703848567377822400132842014290209986511882046"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
572162725645295484646864636912368119919560322012937867903…	2026-09-15	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.968500	0.968000	0.969000	0.001000	5350956.50	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57216272564529548464686463691236811991956032201293786790337952253964682584376"}
564659332200820228357008170639461746359097255077344162485…	2026-09-15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.865000	0.860000	0.870000	0.010000	1919440.34	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"56465933220082022835700817063946174635909725507734416248556389304448520396318"}
561528276087598523186850800805695987623853689664331506391…	2026-09-15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the S…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.115000	0.110000	0.120000	0.010000	8691529.07	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"5615282760875985231868508008056959876238536896643315063916840237042205273721"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
559714704163462506831607357043995702470111093353314067521…	2026-09-15	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	Finance	2026-12-08 19:00	0.905000	0.900000	0.910000	0.010000	1983614.67	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55971470416346250683160735704399570247011109335331406752116975462530324793173"}
551597227614180130441264142766806022703180008416906896848…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.375000	0.370000	0.380000	0.010000	2548641.88	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
551337802515919133770431646071004302666890163620451140238…	2026-09-15	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.825000	0.820000	0.830000	0.010000	766347.71	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"5513378025159191337704316460710043026668901636204511402381351948151562535480"}
545359399362524949902377235799883362379103362810082918083…	2026-09-15	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.815000	0.800000	0.830000	0.030000	220206.51	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708"}
540572489883630359741431801948090827930110925108994000873…	2026-09-15	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Ru…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.991000	0.990000	0.992000	0.002000	22557049.37	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54057248988363035974143180194809082793011092510899400087326333477908849736030"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
540183727272525707669144952049465545783017838520968652115…	2026-09-15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.955000	0.950000	0.960000	0.010000	297972.18	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54018372727252570766914495204946554578301783852096865211527480718618130665409"}
502305252920113973616660321285575666878111844985156935639…	2026-09-15	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.993500	0.993000	0.994000	0.001000	1594575.75	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"50230525292011397361666032128557566687811184498515693563902400561445822555625"}
498210651814734197981469572674800155061027111606607186366…	2026-09-15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.755000	0.750000	0.760000	0.010000	577645.66	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49821065181473419798146957267480015506102711160660718636601116902870701340131"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
489970745072403596167117480645971014290842208022732690429…	2026-09-15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.770000	0.751000	0.789000	0.038000	967442.29	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48997074507240359616711748064597101429084220802273269042911597047117219823609"}
487274313143330882436930169296233637104889801528335441569…	2026-09-15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.825000	0.820000	0.830000	0.010000	5495203.24	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48727431314333088243693016929623363710488980152833544156961659445129455301311"}
481532081438944336054066229267133997016025181446263698597…	2026-09-15	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.993500	0.993000	0.994000	0.001000	196351.01	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48153208143894433605406622926713399701602518144626369859726576312729177555328"}
451525146492131703771068342371472086444956779088956852157…	2026-09-15	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T a…	No	Finance	2026-12-31 18:55	0.768500	0.768000	0.769000	0.001000	107299.70	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"45152514649213170377106834237147208644495677908895685215785984082704434230216"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
439765119022681110416338667995550373303174273154540568470…	2026-09-15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.220000	0.210000	0.230000	0.020000	389845.20	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"43976511902268111041633866799555037330317427315454056847054364885183934986197"}
432276661560081946332291951174751235006336742500725879276…	2026-09-15	Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.978000	0.976000	0.980000	0.004000	5086132.99	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"43227666156008194633229195117475123500633674250072587927676970641387990170901"}
420387758661982126154916501148818182196651399817632076991…	2026-09-15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.395000	0.390000	0.400000	0.010000	3423868.64	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"42038775866198212615491650114881818219665139981763207699110491615333273795415"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
418644974118781917669675814224329617508084409911740855163…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.991000	0.990000	0.992000	0.002000	28182360.40	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
412968407557101875946978682306523943163401318363485304920…	2026-09-15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.985000	0.983000	0.987000	0.004000	3916875.54	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"41296840755710187594697868230652394316340131836348530492072496327848341834044"}
397053449283490515282354373201198287046390520453987045875…	2026-09-15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.805000	0.800000	0.810000	0.010000	328926.62	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"39705344928349051528235437320119828704639052045398704587587139370251349054590"}
391475245227075364569107479926216714330328381414391932648…	2026-09-15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.375000	0.372000	0.378000	0.006000	19100513.69	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"39147524522707536456910747992621671433032838141439193264830818731544404472030"}
362502716815050001322405734737902286252635598084107031033…	2026-09-15	Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 20…	No	Politics	2026-10-04 20:00	0.970500	0.965000	0.976000	0.011000	422512.57	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"36250271681505000132240573473790228625263559808410703103366953147685418684739"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
354804859281476944225223172981600811946037668651024881549…	2026-09-15	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	Finance	2027-06-30 20:00	0.560000	0.550000	0.570000	0.020000	128007.34	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"35480485928147694422522317298160081194603766865102488154902775756915955129166"}
347329888869815101678743898457088328086272843798401313512…	2026-09-15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.635000	0.630000	0.640000	0.010000	434605.88	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"34732988886981510167874389845708832808627284379840131351229635795767825787404"}
315060014092775233121926514701955241670901019430800632739…	2026-09-15	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 14:30	0.994000	0.993000	0.995000	0.002000	1355572.01	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"31506001409277523312192651470195524167090101943080063273985704767232411431594"}
311380583542820966302653682644519869049750637804238147946…	2026-09-15	Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next R…	No	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.968000	0.962000	0.974000	0.012000	472061.78	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"3113805835428209663026536826445198690497506378042381479460524760612035145599"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
288195718996381969070989938731295127198607690575770111451…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.125000	0.120000	0.130000	0.010000	7224654.31	2026-09-15 20:44	0.120000	6235.7249	7.406061	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"2881957189963819690709899387312951271986076905757701114514025622922000576600"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
282394187726336451849246514349560008490783655668426295645…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.998500	0.998000	0.999000	0.001000	27981819.59	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"28239418772633645184924651434956000849078365566842629564562475378531350731731"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
262062974541936244886106126167683073682570549428135415205…	2026-09-15	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	—	—	—	—	0.00	2026-09-15 14:03	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"26206297454193624488610612616768307368257054942813541520512094726545017805639"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
237055837363487065339885108397594338210531138140257664220…	2026-09-15	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market…	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 19:59	0.870500	0.870000	0.871000	0.001000	2115527.28	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"23705583736348706533988510839759433821053113814025766422082583385077433681175"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
209157695206498922538911521168146450670700242231855179567…	2026-09-15	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next R…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.755000	0.750000	0.760000	0.010000	4907449.43	2026-09-15 20:42	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20915769520649892253891152116814645067070024223185517956799957803974344024878"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
206372177129978645538674756692782387273268587041930910401…	2026-09-15	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first roun…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.463000	0.457000	0.469000	0.012000	929478.07	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20637217712997864553867475669278238727326858704193091040111183987981733729683"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
151194742176521898059874813638291527341331488079078046624…	2026-09-15	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-18 23:59	0.011000	0.010000	0.012000	0.002000	179324.14	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"15119474217652189805987481363829152734133148807907804662486639655176427373645"}
146966591495774779415947353517201867864922403144882182880…	2026-09-15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.450000	0.430000	0.470000	0.040000	382475.55	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"1469665914957747794159473535172018678649224031448821828800084553716875180650"}
132892191280217821455206880329924942261509280652160414586…	2026-09-15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.635000	0.630000	0.640000	0.010000	892998.94	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"13289219128021782145520688032992494226150928065216041458658097032141632174656"}
125754825624000585755692407872868337874051158162334079022…	2026-09-15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	No	Politics	2026-09-14 20:00	—	0.999000	—	—	4174497.54	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"12575482562400058575569240787286833787405115816233407902290732716716915814118"}
115351075585746600277716377744935410125916932950844626289…	2026-09-15	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next R…	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.245000	0.240000	0.250000	0.010000	5009036.89	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"115351075585746600277716377744935410125916932950844626289798775482755919708780"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177…	2026-09-15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	Politics	2026-10-30 20:00	0.915000	0.910000	0.920000	0.010000	3377321.35	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177252036814838759682453"}
111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247…	2026-09-15	Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in …	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.855000	0.850000	0.860000	0.010000	569113.76	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247918168011182151346383"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059…	2026-09-15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.985500	0.985000	0.986000	0.001000	5440030.96	2026-09-15 20:44	0.985000	5260.8316	0.006761	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059563486202499238579830"}
111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462…	2026-09-15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.605000	0.600000	0.610000	0.010000	3415751.64	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.978500	0.977000	0.980000	0.003000	9040024.82	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254293945182185650232552"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45