Prediction markets (Finance/Politics)

core.prediction_snapshots

One price per market per day, from first sighting on UW's unusual list to resolution. seen_via says whether the market was on the list that day.

759 rowsCSV

Sources in this table

uw_predictions759 rowsexportable

active:sorted by as_of ↑×

asset_idtext	as_of ↑date	markettext	outcometext	categorytext	resolves_attimestamp with time zone	mid_pricenumeric	best_bidnumeric	best_asknumeric	spreadnumeric

112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177…	2026-09-14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	Politics	2026-10-30 20:00	0.925000	0.920000	0.930000	0.010000	3318031.83	2026-09-14 18:33	0.920000	11123.3185	0.071685	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177252036814838759682453"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247…	2026-09-14	Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in …	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.835000	0.830000	0.840000	0.010000	159947.83	2026-09-14 18:32	0.840000	5215.8911	0.232558	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247918168011182151346383"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059…	2026-09-14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.987500	0.987000	0.988000	0.001000	5271363.68	2026-09-14 18:33	0.988000	12044.2297	0.006748	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059563486202499238579830"}	2026-09-14 18:32
111298138377563993092134225975136320189301451429785490480…	2026-09-14	Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	—	0.999000	—	—	229477.56	2026-09-14 18:32	0.999000	25557.0197	0.926801	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111298138377563993092134225975136320189301451429785490480960975987235797764793"}	2026-09-14 18:32
111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462…	2026-09-14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.615000	0.610000	0.620000	0.010000	3026455.21	2026-09-14 18:32	0.620000	28822.5601	0.349290	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.977500	0.977000	0.978000	0.001000	8917746.71	2026-09-14 18:32	0.977000	27778.4929	0.133619	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254293945182185650232552"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
110531092871817326177676615981488848062239024242021648855…	2026-09-14	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-04 19:59	0.958000	0.955000	0.961000	0.006000	480458.08	2026-09-14 18:32	0.950000	185561.1979	2.737674	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110531092871817326177676615981488848062239024242021648855998953959660629545985"}	2026-09-14 18:32
110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518…	2026-09-14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.915000	0.910000	0.920000	0.010000	650375.06	2026-09-14 18:32	0.920000	13022.1308	0.240000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518430389053088403535939"}	2026-09-14 18:32
108318438641119276756487723540426498152248706490125830253…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.615000	0.600000	0.630000	0.030000	507854.03	2026-09-14 18:32	0.600000	11889.0674	1.612075	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"108318438641119276756487723540426498152248706490125830253351171007133496926091"}	2026-09-14 18:32
108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650…	2026-09-14	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30…	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.993500	0.992000	0.995000	0.003000	630535.94	2026-09-14 18:33	0.992000	10759.6491	0.006714	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650206295005007824881339"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
107382335729882584132242622392619126691496748186166138439…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.491000	0.490000	0.492000	0.002000	2710039.25	2026-09-14 18:32	0.491000	5477.3403	1.184056	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"107382335729882584132242622392619126691496748186166138439329887743369753286473"}	2026-09-14 18:32
106865169592299548286587696300190957552253330566906307858…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.509000	0.508000	0.510000	0.002000	2710219.25	2026-09-14 18:32	0.508000	8622.7327	1.624637	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"106865169592299548286587696300190957552253330566906307858266701916595931430747"}	2026-09-14 18:32
106560772629713122434527877371376465451017804649676159774…	2026-09-14	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elec…	No	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.735000	0.730000	0.740000	0.010000	239763.84	2026-09-14 18:32	0.740000	9065.2031	0.987595	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"106560772629713122434527877371376465451017804649676159774752466805733265212731"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
106186969588053884502739828065662756020867203952742643544…	2026-09-14	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by Se…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.904000	0.900000	0.908000	0.008000	411456.90	2026-09-14 18:32	0.902000	10173.3941	0.334718	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"10618696958805388450273982806566275602086720395274264354492776873006123003601"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
105964405201093262772405016621866393230668268590147803590…	2026-09-14	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-11 19:59	0.952500	0.952000	0.953000	0.001000	386732.76	2026-09-14 18:32	0.949000	38349.2321	1.407843	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"105964405201093262772405016621866393230668268590147803590929677280620246045766"}	2026-09-14 18:32
104196970799436373424174856831098726379541508472048183572…	2026-09-14	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	Finance	2026-06-16 20:00	0.995500	0.995000	0.996000	0.001000	21786205.96	2026-09-14 18:31	0.997000	22336.7180	1.420060	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"104196970799436373424174856831098726379541508472048183572778073240675394024086"}	2026-09-14 18:32
103997221867352584036694268795051058245305885496635764341…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.857000	0.852000	0.862000	0.010000	1660997.22	2026-09-14 18:32	0.862000	7630.2060	0.352932	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"10399722186735258403669426879505105824530588549663576434140165306684479906966"}	2026-09-14 18:32
103216878146106839176259085892501749169837749326876123361…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.875000	0.870000	0.880000	0.010000	290710.92	2026-09-14 18:32	0.870000	7099.4554	0.419625	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"103216878146106839176259085892501749169837749326876123361316747114893299247057"}	2026-09-14 18:32
102682832966209969978965796495958715590593079468512867290…	2026-09-14	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state el…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.635000	0.630000	0.640000	0.010000	471257.64	2026-09-14 18:32	0.630000	5737.3586	1.284222	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"102682832966209969978965796495958715590593079468512867290824407541600306279619"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
102402679475426110774044851720817690724908108674246723425…	2026-09-14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.915000	0.910000	0.920000	0.010000	409410.73	2026-09-14 18:32	0.920000	14252.8473	0.503369	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"102402679475426110774044851720817690724908108674246723425637890637120301946959"}	2026-09-14 18:32
101040420236481079077393026772174192261262803877417817462…	2026-09-14	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.967000	0.965000	0.969000	0.004000	659770.57	2026-09-14 18:32	0.966000	73230.9313	0.161237	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"101040420236481079077393026772174192261262803877417817462744147440746788606483"}	2026-09-14 18:32
998624084800916908187125803907393722693880743269959570345…	2026-09-15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-21 19:59	0.945000	0.939000	0.951000	0.012000	1178597.36	2026-09-15 20:44	0.940000	6325.3260	0.306946	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"99862408480091690818712580390739372269388074326995957034508591909408581976106"}	2026-09-15 20:45
970509217404161929963898066937425756081113288191854931631…	2026-09-15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the S…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.885000	0.880000	0.890000	0.010000	8695868.57	2026-09-15 20:44	0.880000	169518.6005	0.994906	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"97050921740416192996389806693742575608111328819185493163189880975611314813724"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
964668730158312118324843609936891427216117752161356597162…	2026-09-15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.943500	0.943000	0.944000	0.001000	1659815.39	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"96466873015831211832484360993689142721611775216135659716230744624514485341911"}	2026-09-15 20:45
949094972047914222189533269894338488040637872598538898451…	2026-09-15	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russ…	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.809000	0.806000	0.812000	0.006000	13279137.85	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"94909497204791422218953326989433848804063787259853889845128791095089809741999"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
919981947261369276324504834246140128906914465092627504521…	2026-09-15	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September…	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:55	0.986500	0.986000	0.987000	0.001000	2083201.75	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"91998194726136927632450483424614012890691446509262750452187052878486812367191"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
919489933790667506036363084442152945389645504745752279412…	2026-09-15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.970500	0.970000	0.971000	0.001000	1643363.13	2026-09-15 20:43	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"91948993379066750603636308444215294538964550474575227941265783859080165323026"}	2026-09-15 20:45
917430962400008281527885718568527360130152811774137593239…	2026-09-15	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.992000	0.991000	0.993000	0.002000	5857330.20	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"91743096240000828152788571856852736013015281177413759323948075481950472145047"}	2026-09-15 20:45
904645066021363507677847067831895067278279517569415780154…	2026-09-15	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.929000	0.923000	0.935000	0.012000	204005.61	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"90464506602136350767784706783189506727827951756941578015494993747105229931522"}	2026-09-15 20:45
889129265334939884277192916989476881540427209583106323165…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.008500	0.008000	0.009000	0.001000	25937058.94	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"88912926533493988427719291698947688154042720958310632316541141466409683822293"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
880953920883800189888111289050566854206816842477002442212…	2026-09-15	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elec…	No	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.922500	0.922000	0.923000	0.001000	989739.40	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"88095392088380018988811128905056685420681684247700244221273733002608971216833"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
877129206732522975092001510453910152624490557648806599077…	2026-09-15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.325000	0.320000	0.330000	0.010000	2750384.37	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"87712920673252297509200151045391015262449055764880659907762503287643101055970"}	2026-09-15 20:45
861696285480389960883557370425791124139023517457431911390…	2026-09-15	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market …	No	Finance	2026-09-30 19:59	0.875000	0.873000	0.877000	0.004000	2896508.79	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"86169628548038996088355737042579112413902351745743191139025173124156572670231"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
860112292879503650435191178520416146517674558893246821126…	2026-09-15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.625000	0.622000	0.628000	0.006000	19129084.69	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"86011229287950365043519117852041614651767455889324682112682327985496937935368"}	2026-09-15 20:45
857798513793417764583300368515481143811760939532025428635…	2026-09-15	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	Finance	2026-12-08 19:00	0.885000	0.880000	0.890000	0.010000	438051.56	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"85779851379341776458330036851548114381176093953202542863538086591922931585951"}	2026-09-15 20:45
857235160700777308831059090493880615970491732816132019100…	2026-09-15	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	Finance	2027-06-30 20:00	0.440000	0.430000	0.450000	0.020000	128007.34	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"85723516070077730883105909049388061597049173281613201910087943908235778734129"}	2026-09-15 20:45
837834894546594208076797235748400326600023267100451238655…	2026-09-15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.175000	0.170000	0.180000	0.010000	5482703.24	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"83783489454659420807679723574840032660002326710045123865554753994450797728825"}	2026-09-15 20:45
834382159788561801458728058213909198406214350871041318486…	2026-09-15	Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.605000	0.580000	0.630000	0.050000	15444.31	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"8343821597885618014587280582139091984062143508710413184869540112147713995559"}	2026-09-15 20:45
824518776291711202158630957865362129942237799595235544686…	2026-09-15	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.465000	0.460000	0.470000	0.010000	427512.76	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"82451877629171120215863095786536212994223779959523554468642312484613145998263"}	2026-09-15 20:45
814704650806561500884828862983567836210628029191100967630…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	—	0.999000	—	—	28597167.59	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"81470465080656150088482886298356783621062802919110096763062861781139262816347"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
786323950833106707343152055020612496023190696539159323201…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.625000	0.620000	0.630000	0.010000	2548641.88	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"78632395083310670734315205502061249602319069653915932320155846460019107676757"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
777376030497043714019851430302035511306245207849258154732…	2026-09-15	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.675000	0.670000	0.680000	0.010000	2746009.37	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"77737603049704371401985143030203551130624520784925815473217168646825527075459"}	2026-09-15 20:45
759490790723005116356036002065672277387031608559005477780…	2026-09-15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.365000	0.360000	0.370000	0.010000	891773.94	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"75949079072300511635603600206567227738703160855900547778099294726738851616000"}	2026-09-15 20:45
741952205861292373492588031790826345422845035383200006379…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.991500	0.991000	0.992000	0.001000	25937058.94	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"74195220586129237349258803179082634542284503538320000637909015632982564961602"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
740765688468667141425038470267607027135556437780387902204…	2026-09-15	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.865000	0.860000	0.870000	0.010000	2987310.50	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"74076568846866714142503847026760702713555643778038790220454009063912340064073"}	2026-09-15 20:45
736219880206384639899751465585761631088358740412345817490…	2026-09-15	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.535000	0.530000	0.540000	0.010000	427422.76	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"73621988020638463989975146558576163108835874041234581749056831089553559830214"}	2026-09-15 20:45
733235589739108047748976128926669728895843930926410187299…	2026-09-15	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-18 23:59	0.989000	0.988000	0.990000	0.002000	179646.00	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"73323558973910804774897612892666972889584393092641018729960853480391859765967"}	2026-09-15 20:45
730563024980408563549639986990576937229430271615903444732…	2026-09-15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.961500	0.961000	0.962000	0.001000	12130915.60	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"7305630249804085635496399869905769372294302716159034447326228509068694952392"}	2026-09-15 20:45
688818401091142455217972750255962569283846132511084298084…	2026-09-15	Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	No	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.934500	0.920000	0.949000	0.029000	115756.21	2026-09-15 20:44	0.909000	5216.2892	0.059259	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"68881840109114245521797275025596256928384613251108429808491092208111156621485"}	2026-09-15 20:45
639152872719406880648701729914364897755875413354573703553…	2026-09-15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.365000	0.360000	0.370000	0.010000	438862.31	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63915287271940688064870172991436489775587541335457370355314489349033951709373"}	2026-09-15 20:45