Prediction markets (Finance/Politics)

core.prediction_snapshots

One price per market per day, from first sighting on UW's unusual list to resolution. seen_via says whether the market was on the list that day.

1,356 rowsCSV — whole table, not this view

Sources in this table

uw_predictions1,356 rowsexportable

active:endpoint = /api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity×

asset_idtext	as_of ↓date	markettext	outcometext	categorytext	resolves_attimestamp with time zone	mid_pricenumeric	best_bidnumeric

639152872719406880648701729914364897755875413354573703553…	2026-09-23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.305000	0.300000	0.310000	0.010000	399331.94	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63915287271940688064870172991436489775587541335457370355314489349033951709373"}	2026-09-23 20:45	2026-09-23 20:45
619623807350458713513525639477460371897673980699607764550…	2026-09-23	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in …	No	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.714000	0.701000	0.727000	0.026000	1174823.08	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61962380735045871351352563947746037189767398069960776455040567750304235670037"}	2026-09-23 20:45
619560485363314289163847070597824802415581416085257056714…	2026-09-23	Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.035000	0.031000	0.039000	0.008000	252456.81	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
582122695178968840153384697752946899762026824309718829049…	2026-09-23	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	—	—	—	—	0.00	2026-09-15 14:03	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
578762142969530407059149543522197424236289121736534094226…	2026-09-23	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the nex…	No	Politics	2027-04-29 20:00	0.924000	0.920000	0.928000	0.008000	988269.30	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57876214296953040705914954352219742423628912173653409422651199206441027151468"}	2026-09-23 20:45
572162725645295484646864636912368119919560322012937867903…	2026-09-23	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.973500	0.972000	0.975000	0.003000	5080907.65	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
564659332200820228357008170639461746359097255077344162485…	2026-09-23	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.925000	0.920000	0.930000	0.010000	1885346.26	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
551597227614180130441264142766806022703180008416906896848…	2026-09-23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.645000	0.640000	0.650000	0.010000	5150667.04	2026-09-23 20:42	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050"}	2026-09-23 20:45
551337802515919133770431646071004302666890163620451140238…	2026-09-23	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.895000	0.890000	0.900000	0.010000	581295.61	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
545359399362524949902377235799883362379103362810082918083…	2026-09-23	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.955000	0.950000	0.960000	0.010000	175307.12	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
540183727272525707669144952049465545783017838520968652115…	2026-09-23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.979000	0.969000	0.989000	0.020000	384628.30	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
502305252920113973616660321285575666878111844985156935639…	2026-09-23	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.998500	0.998000	0.999000	0.001000	412791.44	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
500851646544570770211804416672077147052244697067733288825…	2026-09-23	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.996500	0.995000	0.998000	0.003000	680711.06	2026-09-23 20:44	0.997000	11612.2432	0.285714	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
498210651814734197981469572674800155061027111606607186366…	2026-09-23	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.705000	0.700000	0.710000	0.010000	532340.06	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49821065181473419798146957267480015506102711160660718636601116902870701340131"}	2026-09-23 20:45
489970745072403596167117480645971014290842208022732690429…	2026-09-23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.976500	0.972000	0.981000	0.009000	1000062.97	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
487274313143330882436930169296233637104889801528335441569…	2026-09-23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.795000	0.790000	0.800000	0.010000	5261961.97	2026-09-23 20:44	0.800000	13105.3600	1.000000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
451525146492131703771068342371472086444956779088956852157…	2026-09-23	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T a…	No	Finance	2026-12-31 18:55	0.750500	0.750000	0.751000	0.001000	124197.09	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"45152514649213170377106834237147208644495677908895685215785984082704434230216"}	2026-09-23 20:45
439765119022681110416338667995550373303174273154540568470…	2026-09-23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.175000	0.170000	0.180000	0.010000	502856.87	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
432276661560081946332291951174751235006336742500725879276…	2026-09-23	Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.993500	0.993000	0.994000	0.001000	410972.09	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
420387758661982126154916501148818182196651399817632076991…	2026-09-23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.665000	0.660000	0.670000	0.010000	6254280.94	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"42038775866198212615491650114881818219665139981763207699110491615333273795415"}	2026-09-23 20:45
418644974118781917669675814224329617508084409911740855163…	2026-09-23	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.992500	0.992000	0.993000	0.001000	38711225.08	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839"}	2026-09-23 20:45
412968407557101875946978682306523943163401318363485304920…	2026-09-23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.998500	0.998000	0.999000	0.001000	3832110.00	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
391475245227075364569107479926216714330328381414391932648…	2026-09-23	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.382000	0.380000	0.384000	0.004000	19545591.75	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
390315897145723429662583059433495733284128632195230088657…	2026-09-23	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.995500	0.995000	0.996000	0.001000	3268160.31	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
386671969586024161374636285174395601193047657091045701924…	2026-09-23	Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.395000	0.390000	0.400000	0.010000	895714.21	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
370901285665075099136305894603726203520137665548863807854…	2026-09-23	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.588000	0.587000	0.589000	0.002000	2018501.67	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
365955751971998463982674819723851806439519858225051874777…	2026-09-23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.845000	0.840000	0.850000	0.010000	672857.72	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
362502716815050001322405734737902286252635598084107031033…	2026-09-23	Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 20…	No	Politics	2026-10-04 20:00	0.987000	0.986000	0.988000	0.002000	337091.57	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"36250271681505000132240573473790228625263559808410703103366953147685418684739"}	2026-09-23 20:45
354804859281476944225223172981600811946037668651024881549…	2026-09-23	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	Finance	2027-06-30 20:00	0.034000	0.032000	0.036000	0.004000	261353.58	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
347329888869815101678743898457088328086272843798401313512…	2026-09-23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.695000	0.690000	0.700000	0.010000	388288.87	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
315060014092775233121926514701955241670901019430800632739…	2026-09-23	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 14:30	0.998500	0.998000	0.999000	0.001000	1332146.92	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
237055837363487065339885108397594338210531138140257664220…	2026-09-23	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market…	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 19:59	0.990500	0.990000	0.991000	0.001000	1597731.02	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"23705583736348706533988510839759433821053113814025766422082583385077433681175"}	2026-09-23 20:45
215274460051627226687021468478068379447864179867949255927…	2026-09-23	Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.412000	0.411000	0.413000	0.002000	2018501.67	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
206372177129978645538674756692782387273268587041930910401…	2026-09-23	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first roun…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.407500	0.401000	0.414000	0.013000	1039571.86	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20637217712997864553867475669278238727326858704193091040111183987981733729683"}	2026-09-23 20:45
146966591495774779415947353517201867864922403144882182880…	2026-09-23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.036000	0.034000	0.038000	0.004000	595995.62	2026-09-23 20:42	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
129333854624450512195480398076312789215174692116177557737…	2026-09-23	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.945000	0.940000	0.950000	0.010000	456548.91	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177…	2026-09-23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	Politics	2026-10-30 20:00	0.925000	0.920000	0.930000	0.010000	3241487.41	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247…	2026-09-23	Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in …	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.825000	0.820000	0.830000	0.010000	388069.70	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247918168011182151346383"}	2026-09-23 20:45
111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059…	2026-09-23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.993500	0.993000	0.994000	0.001000	5290694.85	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462…	2026-09-23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.335000	0.330000	0.340000	0.010000	6204327.41	2026-09-23 20:42	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748"}	2026-09-23 20:45
110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254…	2026-09-23	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.994500	0.994000	0.995000	0.001000	18740123.14	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254293945182185650232552"}	2026-09-23 20:45
110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518…	2026-09-23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.944500	0.941000	0.948000	0.007000	2325498.19	2026-09-23 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
108318438641119276756487723540426498152248706490125830253…	2026-09-23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.964000	0.962000	0.966000	0.004000	595456.23	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650…	2026-09-23	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30…	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.997500	0.997000	0.998000	0.001000	596019.68	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650206295005007824881339"}	2026-09-23 20:45
104534765027523369590815225621511873074758721530222532840…	2026-09-23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 25?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-25 19:59	0.965000	0.963000	0.967000	0.004000	382912.53	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
103997221867352584036694268795051058245305885496635764341…	2026-09-23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.990000	0.989000	0.991000	0.002000	1554443.26	2026-09-23 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
103216878146106839176259085892501749169837749326876123361…	2026-09-23	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.925000	0.910000	0.940000	0.030000	334492.06	2026-09-23 20:43	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
964668730158312118324843609936891427216117752161356597162…	2026-09-22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.994500	0.993000	0.996000	0.003000	1639175.27	2026-09-22 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity
919981947261369276324504834246140128906914465092627504521…	2026-09-22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September…	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:55	0.993500	0.993000	0.994000	0.001000	1640351.04	2026-09-22 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"91998194726136927632450483424614012890691446509262750452187052878486812367191"}	2026-09-22 20:45
919489933790667506036363084442152945389645504745752279412…	2026-09-22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.996500	0.996000	0.997000	0.001000	1669658.14	2026-09-22 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity