Prediction markets (Finance/Politics)

core.prediction_snapshots

One price per market per day, from first sighting on UW's unusual list to resolution. seen_via says whether the market was on the list that day.

1,036 rowsCSV — whole table, not this view

Sources in this table

uw_predictions1,036 rowsexportable

active:source = uw_predictions×

asset_idtext	as_of ↓date	markettext	outcometext	categorytext	resolves_attimestamp with time zone	mid_pricenumeric	best_bidnumeric	best_asknumeric

711994909579240418867354111619572767777786859915364155267…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.715000	0.711000	0.719000	0.008000	521136.14	2026-09-14 18:32	0.710000	64508.8089	0.811324	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"71199490957924041886735411161957276777778685991536415526722488030509401889440"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
694986485568188058349458951986700723447215101278306606680…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.335000	0.330000	0.340000	0.010000	48478.53	2026-09-14 18:31	0.330000	9997.9318	3.960000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"69498648556818805834945895198670072344721510127830660668063083785228750351236"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
694146134655431366360774186239195771903000925636070848554…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-14 19:59	0.997500	0.997000	0.998000	0.001000	263355.36	2026-09-14 18:31	0.998000	29883.9374	1.960101	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"69414613465543136636077418623919577190300092563607084855456415038243186412684"}
688818401091142455217972750255962569283846132511084298084…	2026-09-14	Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	No	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.934000	0.929000	0.939000	0.010000	131961.78	2026-09-14 18:32	0.928000	5048.5942	0.268490	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"68881840109114245521797275025596256928384613251108429808491092208111156621485"}
676188477881608354275335053977961720108459466423472965578…	2026-09-14	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sw…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.875000	0.870000	0.880000	0.010000	280422.24	2026-09-14 18:32	0.880000	132661.7154	1.254906	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"6761884778816083542753350539779617201084594664234729655783875952381923983097"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
639152872719406880648701729914364897755875413354573703553…	2026-09-14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.355000	0.350000	0.360000	0.010000	502740.28	2026-09-14 18:32	0.350000	5046.9278	0.640000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63915287271940688064870172991436489775587541335457370355314489349033951709373"}
638425290687100057161693253803154703590477497866107786473…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.875000	0.870000	0.880000	0.010000	6744433.82	2026-09-14 18:30	0.870000	1343760.1249	6.706374	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63842529068710005716169325380315470359047749786610778647370693404952498013178"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
630283026420228182855147388100408918213908530857243229957…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.285000	0.281000	0.289000	0.008000	521136.14	2026-09-14 18:32	0.281000	7380.3751	2.023405	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63028302642022818285514738810040891821390853085724322995706281952487897762762"}
622278478531323029432702918801560608806962262451080224857…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.730000	0.720000	0.740000	0.020000	763561.47	2026-09-14 18:32	0.750000	7882.2978	0.600000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"6222784785313230294327029188015606088069622624510802248578044329127504364661"}
619623807350458713513525639477460371897673980699607764550…	2026-09-14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in …	No	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.762500	0.762000	0.763000	0.001000	493952.16	2026-09-14 18:32	0.762000	11186.1773	0.412083	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61962380735045871351352563947746037189767398069960776455040567750304235670037"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
619560485363314289163847070597824802415581416085257056714…	2026-09-14	Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.135000	0.130000	0.140000	0.010000	159903.93	2026-09-14 18:32	0.140000	6360.4487	0.656667	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61956048536331428916384707059782480241558141608525705671477344792920313779730"}
582122695178968840153384697752946899762026824309718829049…	2026-09-14	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.974500	0.972000	0.977000	0.005000	258968.78	2026-09-14 18:32	0.972000	10488.0374	0.584086	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"58212269517896884015338469775294689976202682430971882904931336575860619991827"}
578762142969530407059149543522197424236289121736534094226…	2026-09-14	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the nex…	No	Politics	2027-04-29 20:00	0.899000	0.897000	0.901000	0.004000	425760.72	2026-09-14 18:32	0.897000	8794.2431	0.493827	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57876214296953040705914954352219742423628912173653409422651199206441027151468"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
577481380850227197603457723100407038485673778224001328420…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.002500	0.002000	0.003000	0.001000	27623249.09	2026-09-14 18:32	0.002000	11443.9007	3.977143	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57748138085022719760345772310040703848567377822400132842014290209986511882046"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
572162725645295484646864636912368119919560322012937867903…	2026-09-14	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.969500	0.969000	0.970000	0.001000	5127626.55	2026-09-14 18:33	0.969000	8440.2734	0.006887	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57216272564529548464686463691236811991956032201293786790337952253964682584376"}
564659332200820228357008170639461746359097255077344162485…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.855000	0.850000	0.860000	0.010000	1759598.60	2026-09-14 18:32	0.850000	19137.7028	1.023030	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"56465933220082022835700817063946174635909725507734416248556389304448520396318"}
561528276087598523186850800805695987623853689664331506391…	2026-09-14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the S…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.125000	0.120000	0.130000	0.010000	5398596.03	2026-09-14 18:30	0.120000	325729.4140	12.957143	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"5615282760875985231868508008056959876238536896643315063916840237042205273721"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
559714704163462506831607357043995702470111093353314067521…	2026-09-14	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	Finance	2026-12-08 19:00	0.885000	0.880000	0.890000	0.010000	1698827.35	2026-09-14 18:32	0.870000	19858.1272	0.601928	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55971470416346250683160735704399570247011109335331406752116975462530324793173"}	2026-09-14 18:32
551597227614180130441264142766806022703180008416906896848…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.365000	0.360000	0.370000	0.010000	1995171.84	2026-09-14 18:32	0.370000	6191.5952	0.520000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
551337802515919133770431646071004302666890163620451140238…	2026-09-14	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.845000	0.840000	0.850000	0.010000	487320.12	2026-09-14 18:31	0.840000	5954.4028	0.349885	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"5513378025159191337704316460710043026668901636204511402381351948151562535480"}
545359399362524949902377235799883362379103362810082918083…	2026-09-14	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.780000	0.770000	0.790000	0.020000	208472.93	2026-09-14 18:32	0.790000	10974.9583	1.304609	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708"}
540572489883630359741431801948090827930110925108994000873…	2026-09-14	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Ru…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.990500	0.990000	0.991000	0.001000	22450236.12	2026-09-14 18:33	0.990000	5674.5613	0.013482	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54057248988363035974143180194809082793011092510899400087326333477908849736030"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
540183727272525707669144952049465545783017838520968652115…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.945000	0.930000	0.960000	0.030000	286979.75	2026-09-14 18:32	0.950000	10070.4251	0.120000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54018372727252570766914495204946554578301783852096865211527480718618130665409"}
523348780188146859725470148750091600547171201711003480696…	2026-09-14	Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in …	Yes	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	—	0.999000	—	—	125646.83	2026-09-14 18:32	0.999000	5853.2152	0.146801	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"52334878018814685972547014875009160054717120171100348069688980422350429906466"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
502305252920113973616660321285575666878111844985156935639…	2026-09-14	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.995000	0.994000	0.996000	0.002000	1241089.34	2026-09-14 18:33	0.995000	25177.0769	0.126727	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"50230525292011397361666032128557566687811184498515693563902400561445822555625"}
502021450557510225228837012720236299131376560046509961185…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to Se…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.091500	0.091000	0.092000	0.001000	167881.09	2026-09-14 18:32	0.092000	9376.8464	4.440000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"50202145055751022522883701272023629913137656004650996118519929154953683657035"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
499522872446145757347239137576490879020243392380071875856…	2026-09-14	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sw…	No	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.125000	0.120000	0.130000	0.010000	331318.76	2026-09-14 18:32	0.120000	8580.6596	3.666061	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49952287244614575734723913757649087902024339238007187585607375183859292977482"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
498210651814734197981469572674800155061027111606607186366…	2026-09-14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.755000	0.750000	0.760000	0.010000	381606.36	2026-09-14 18:32	0.750000	15805.0531	1.507719	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49821065181473419798146957267480015506102711160660718636601116902870701340131"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
496801044077036599910134990819084835354450017698659671393…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.765000	0.760000	0.770000	0.010000	55537.98	2026-09-14 18:32	0.770000	24238.5819	3.828634	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49680104407703659991013499081908483535445001769865967139333008259807233372469"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
489970745072403596167117480645971014290842208022732690429…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.793500	0.787000	0.800000	0.013000	980078.81	2026-09-14 18:32	0.791000	5414.8001	1.027196	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48997074507240359616711748064597101429084220802273269042911597047117219823609"}
487274313143330882436930169296233637104889801528335441569…	2026-09-14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.825000	0.820000	0.830000	0.010000	4997095.49	2026-09-14 18:32	0.820000	23325.7799	1.320321	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48727431314333088243693016929623363710488980152833544156961659445129455301311"}
481532081438944336054066229267133997016025181446263698597…	2026-09-14	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 15?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.974500	0.966000	0.983000	0.017000	240005.54	2026-09-14 18:32	0.970000	6847.0507	0.923295	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48153208143894433605406622926713399701602518144626369859726576312729177555328"}
451525146492131703771068342371472086444956779088956852157…	2026-09-14	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T a…	No	Finance	2026-12-31 18:55	0.768500	0.768000	0.769000	0.001000	116226.88	2026-09-14 18:32	0.765000	5498.6519	0.119812	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"45152514649213170377106834237147208644495677908895685215785984082704434230216"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
439765119022681110416338667995550373303174273154540568470…	2026-09-14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.225000	0.220000	0.230000	0.010000	430152.67	2026-09-14 18:32	0.230000	8201.1411	0.863030	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"43976511902268111041633866799555037330317427315454056847054364885183934986197"}
432276661560081946332291951174751235006336742500725879276…	2026-09-14	Iran leadership change by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.976500	0.975000	0.978000	0.003000	2520004.58	2026-09-14 18:32	0.980000	13386.8071	0.323074	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"43227666156008194633229195117475123500633674250072587927676970641387990170901"}
420387758661982126154916501148818182196651399817632076991…	2026-09-14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.385000	0.380000	0.390000	0.010000	3026455.21	2026-09-14 18:32	0.380000	18541.7482	0.120000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"42038775866198212615491650114881818219665139981763207699110491615333273795415"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
418644974118781917669675814224329617508084409911740855163…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.991000	0.990000	0.992000	0.002000	27919453.32	2026-09-14 18:32	0.992000	6835.7776	0.006727	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"41864497411878191766967581422432961750808440991174085516384293402629587721839"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
412968407557101875946978682306523943163401318363485304920…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.986000	0.984000	0.988000	0.004000	3888276.77	2026-09-14 18:32	0.988000	20650.6610	0.167571	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"41296840755710187594697868230652394316340131836348530492072496327848341834044"}
397053449283490515282354373201198287046390520453987045875…	2026-09-14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.795000	0.790000	0.800000	0.010000	211655.45	2026-09-14 18:32	0.800000	8543.8528	0.162602	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"39705344928349051528235437320119828704639052045398704587587139370251349054590"}
391475245227075364569107479926216714330328381414391932648…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.369000	0.365000	0.373000	0.008000	18919238.99	2026-09-14 18:32	0.368000	7756.9128	1.293198	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"39147524522707536456910747992621671433032838141439193264830818731544404472030"}
362502716815050001322405734737902286252635598084107031033…	2026-09-14	Will Parti libéral du Québec win the most seats in the 20…	No	Politics	2026-10-04 20:00	0.965500	0.959000	0.972000	0.013000	232721.26	2026-09-14 18:33	0.970000	9490.7420	0.006944	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"36250271681505000132240573473790228625263559808410703103366953147685418684739"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
354804859281476944225223172981600811946037668651024881549…	2026-09-14	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	Finance	2027-06-30 20:00	0.575000	0.570000	0.580000	0.010000	62681.88	2026-09-14 18:30	0.590000	8605.1708	0.218579	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"35480485928147694422522317298160081194603766865102488154902775756915955129166"}
352027851756244737431333253503369396971453932457335003009…	2026-09-14	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.885000	0.880000	0.890000	0.010000	278741.16	2026-09-14 18:32	0.890000	111169.9542	1.035758	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"35202785175624473743133325350336939697145393245733500300951742752216521350176"}
347329888869815101678743898457088328086272843798401313512…	2026-09-14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.645000	0.640000	0.650000	0.010000	502450.28	2026-09-14 18:32	0.650000	10128.0153	0.451640	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"34732988886981510167874389845708832808627284379840131351229635795767825787404"}
339304231760843286935644703542305621309901033522794960840…	2026-09-14	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 18?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-18 19:59	0.974000	0.972000	0.976000	0.004000	245741.28	2026-09-14 18:32	0.972000	16058.7776	1.201905	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"33930423176084328693564470354230562130990103352279496084032098459555430581042"}
315060014092775233121926514701955241670901019430800632739…	2026-09-14	Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 14:30	0.993500	0.993000	0.994000	0.001000	1379297.37	2026-09-14 18:32	0.993000	24450.9416	0.006720	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"31506001409277523312192651470195524167090101943080063273985704767232411431594"}
311380583542820966302653682644519869049750637804238147946…	2026-09-14	Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next R…	No	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.974500	0.973000	0.976000	0.003000	479037.91	2026-09-14 18:32	0.975000	19236.0879	0.299362	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"3113805835428209663026536826445198690497506378042381479460524760612035145599"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
288195718996381969070989938731295127198607690575770111451…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.125000	0.120000	0.130000	0.010000	6749490.18	2026-09-14 18:32	0.120000	259975.3256	10.017143	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"2881957189963819690709899387312951271986076905757701114514025622922000576600"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
282394187726336451849246514349560008490783655668426295645…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.997500	0.997000	0.998000	0.001000	27577840.00	2026-09-14 18:32	0.998000	320497.2059	0.870530	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"28239418772633645184924651434956000849078365566842629564562475378531350731731"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
262062974541936244886106126167683073682570549428135415205…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.908500	0.908000	0.909000	0.001000	167841.09	2026-09-14 18:32	0.897000	11721.9222	1.837895	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"26206297454193624488610612616768307368257054942813541520512094726545017805639"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32