Prediction markets (Finance/Politics)

core.prediction_snapshots

One price per market per day, from first sighting on UW's unusual list to resolution. seen_via says whether the market was on the list that day.

759 rowsCSV — whole table, not this view

Sources in this table

uw_predictions759 rowsexportable

active:source = uw_predictions×

asset_idtext	as_of ↓date	markettext	outcometext	categorytext	resolves_attimestamp with time zone	mid_pricenumeric	best_bidnumeric	best_asknumeric

146966591495774779415947353517201867864922403144882182880…	2026-09-17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.165000	0.150000	0.180000	0.030000	413822.33	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"1469665914957747794159473535172018678649224031448821828800084553716875180650"}	2026-09-17 20:45	2026-09-17 20:45
132892191280217821455206880329924942261509280652160414586…	2026-09-17	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.605000	0.600000	0.610000	0.010000	830542.81	2026-09-17 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"13289219128021782145520688032992494226150928065216041458658097032141632174656"}
129333854624450512195480398076312789215174692116177557737…	2026-09-17	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.945000	0.940000	0.950000	0.010000	532282.46	2026-09-17 20:45	0.950000	64710.1215	0.070922	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"12933385462445051219548039807631278921517469211617755773732773415883384410827"}
115351075585746600277716377744935410125916932950844626289…	2026-09-17	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next R…	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.235000	0.230000	0.240000	0.010000	5358450.06	2026-09-17 20:42	0.230000	5264.9958	5.500000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"115351075585746600277716377744935410125916932950844626289798775482755919708780"}	2026-09-17 20:45	2026-09-17 20:45
112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177…	2026-09-17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	Politics	2026-10-30 20:00	0.935000	0.930000	0.940000	0.010000	3364894.16	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177252036814838759682453"}
111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247…	2026-09-17	Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in …	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.865000	0.860000	0.870000	0.010000	249913.36	2026-09-17 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247918168011182151346383"}	2026-09-17 20:45	2026-09-17 20:45
111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059…	2026-09-17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.993000	0.992000	0.994000	0.002000	5391176.03	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059563486202499238579830"}
111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462…	2026-09-17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.495000	0.490000	0.500000	0.010000	6069122.26	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748"}	2026-09-17 20:45	2026-09-17 20:45
110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254…	2026-09-17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.993500	0.993000	0.994000	0.001000	19097254.43	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254293945182185650232552"}	2026-09-17 20:45	2026-09-17 20:45
110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518…	2026-09-17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.910000	0.900000	0.920000	0.020000	559439.83	2026-09-17 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518430389053088403535939"}
108318438641119276756487723540426498152248706490125830253…	2026-09-17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.835000	0.820000	0.850000	0.030000	413822.33	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"108318438641119276756487723540426498152248706490125830253351171007133496926091"}
108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650…	2026-09-17	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30…	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.994500	0.994000	0.995000	0.001000	544200.11	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650206295005007824881339"}	2026-09-17 20:45	2026-09-17 20:45
107382335729882584132242622392619126691496748186166138439…	2026-09-17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.556000	0.554000	0.558000	0.004000	2842166.12	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"107382335729882584132242622392619126691496748186166138439329887743369753286473"}
106865169592299548286587696300190957552253330566906307858…	2026-09-17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.444000	0.442000	0.446000	0.004000	2842166.12	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"106865169592299548286587696300190957552253330566906307858266701916595931430747"}
106560772629713122434527877371376465451017804649676159774…	2026-09-17	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elec…	No	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.735000	0.730000	0.740000	0.010000	571915.97	2026-09-17 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"106560772629713122434527877371376465451017804649676159774752466805733265212731"}	2026-09-17 20:45	2026-09-17 20:45
106186969588053884502739828065662756020867203952742643544…	2026-09-17	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by Se…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.923000	0.922000	0.924000	0.002000	1101522.53	2026-09-17 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"10618696958805388450273982806566275602086720395274264354492776873006123003601"}	2026-09-17 20:45	2026-09-17 20:45
103997221867352584036694268795051058245305885496635764341…	2026-09-17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.955500	0.944000	0.967000	0.023000	1657392.91	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"10399722186735258403669426879505105824530588549663576434140165306684479906966"}
103216878146106839176259085892501749169837749326876123361…	2026-09-17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.925000	0.920000	0.930000	0.010000	313556.79	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"103216878146106839176259085892501749169837749326876123361316747114893299247057"}
102682832966209969978965796495958715590593079468512867290…	2026-09-17	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state el…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.665000	0.660000	0.670000	0.010000	559459.17	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"102682832966209969978965796495958715590593079468512867290824407541600306279619"}	2026-09-17 20:45	2026-09-17 20:45
102402679475426110774044851720817690724908108674246723425…	2026-09-17	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.935000	0.930000	0.940000	0.010000	611333.74	2026-09-17 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"102402679475426110774044851720817690724908108674246723425637890637120301946959"}
101040420236481079077393026772174192261262803877417817462…	2026-09-17	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.983500	0.983000	0.984000	0.001000	751901.73	2026-09-17 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"101040420236481079077393026772174192261262803877417817462744147440746788606483"}	2026-09-17 20:45
998624084800916908187125803907393722693880743269959570345…	2026-09-16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-21 19:59	0.968000	0.967000	0.969000	0.002000	2034676.46	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"99862408480091690818712580390739372269388074326995957034508591909408581976106"}
964668730158312118324843609936891427216117752161356597162…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.956500	0.954000	0.959000	0.005000	1853739.70	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"96466873015831211832484360993689142721611775216135659716230744624514485341911"}
949094972047914222189533269894338488040637872598538898451…	2026-09-16	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russ…	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.779500	0.779000	0.780000	0.001000	13725983.32	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"94909497204791422218953326989433848804063787259853889845128791095089809741999"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
919981947261369276324504834246140128906914465092627504521…	2026-09-16	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September…	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:55	0.989500	0.989000	0.990000	0.001000	2033118.40	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"91998194726136927632450483424614012890691446509262750452187052878486812367191"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
919489933790667506036363084442152945389645504745752279412…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.985500	0.985000	0.986000	0.001000	1730680.79	2026-09-16 20:43	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"91948993379066750603636308444215294538964550474575227941265783859080165323026"}
917430962400008281527885718568527360130152811774137593239…	2026-09-16	Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.993500	0.993000	0.994000	0.001000	5812471.99	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"91743096240000828152788571856852736013015281177413759323948075481950472145047"}	2026-09-16 20:45
904645066021363507677847067831895067278279517569415780154…	2026-09-16	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.931000	0.925000	0.937000	0.012000	303213.14	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"90464506602136350767784706783189506727827951756941578015494993747105229931522"}	2026-09-16 20:45
880953920883800189888111289050566854206816842477002442212…	2026-09-16	Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elec…	No	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.946500	0.946000	0.947000	0.001000	670874.58	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"88095392088380018988811128905056685420681684247700244221273733002608971216833"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
877129206732522975092001510453910152624490557648806599077…	2026-09-16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.325000	0.320000	0.330000	0.010000	2756338.01	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"87712920673252297509200151045391015262449055764880659907762503287643101055970"}
861696285480389960883557370425791124139023517457431911390…	2026-09-16	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market …	No	Finance	2026-09-30 19:59	0.916500	0.916000	0.917000	0.001000	3519666.32	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"86169628548038996088355737042579112413902351745743191139025173124156572670231"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
860112292879503650435191178520416146517674558893246821126…	2026-09-16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.608000	0.607000	0.609000	0.002000	19163910.81	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"86011229287950365043519117852041614651767455889324682112682327985496937935368"}
857235160700777308831059090493880615970491732816132019100…	2026-09-16	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	Finance	2027-06-30 20:00	0.470000	0.460000	0.480000	0.020000	125290.59	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"85723516070077730883105909049388061597049173281613201910087943908235778734129"}	2026-09-16 20:45
837834894546594208076797235748400326600023267100451238655…	2026-09-16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.175000	0.170000	0.180000	0.010000	5638977.54	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"83783489454659420807679723574840032660002326710045123865554753994450797728825"}
834382159788561801458728058213909198406214350871041318486…	2026-09-16	Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.600000	0.580000	0.620000	0.040000	17011.55	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"8343821597885618014587280582139091984062143508710413184869540112147713995559"}
824518776291711202158630957865362129942237799595235544686…	2026-09-16	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.645000	0.640000	0.650000	0.010000	979947.27	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"82451877629171120215863095786536212994223779959523554468642312484613145998263"}
786323950833106707343152055020612496023190696539159323201…	2026-09-16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.545000	0.540000	0.550000	0.010000	4563392.56	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"78632395083310670734315205502061249602319069653915932320155846460019107676757"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
777376030497043714019851430302035511306245207849258154732…	2026-09-16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.675000	0.670000	0.680000	0.010000	2750963.01	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"77737603049704371401985143030203551130624520784925815473217168646825527075459"}
759490790723005116356036002065672277387031608559005477780…	2026-09-16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.375000	0.370000	0.380000	0.010000	911064.96	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"75949079072300511635603600206567227738703160855900547778099294726738851616000"}
740765688468667141425038470267607027135556437780387902204…	2026-09-16	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.855000	0.850000	0.860000	0.010000	2991111.66	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"74076568846866714142503847026760702713555643778038790220454009063912340064073"}
736219880206384639899751465585761631088358740412345817490…	2026-09-16	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.355000	0.350000	0.360000	0.010000	979947.27	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"73621988020638463989975146558576163108835874041234581749056831089553559830214"}
730623658924743772861303751237460587438735927240238482341…	2026-09-16	Moscow air traffic suspended by September 15?	No	Politics	2026-09-15 19:59	0.989000	0.988000	0.990000	0.002000	127257.22	2026-09-16 20:44	0.980000	10098.1899	0.827299	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"73062365892474377286130375123746058743873592724023848234122415930442067907575"}
730563024980408563549639986990576937229430271615903444732…	2026-09-16	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.957000	0.956000	0.958000	0.002000	11769339.92	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"7305630249804085635496399869905769372294302716159034447326228509068694952392"}
639152872719406880648701729914364897755875413354573703553…	2026-09-16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.355000	0.350000	0.360000	0.010000	592950.61	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63915287271940688064870172991436489775587541335457370355314489349033951709373"}
622278478531323029432702918801560608806962262451080224857…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.710000	0.690000	0.730000	0.040000	1050276.08	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"6222784785313230294327029188015606088069622624510802248578044329127504364661"}
619623807350458713513525639477460371897673980699607764550…	2026-09-16	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in …	No	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.774500	0.774000	0.775000	0.001000	1006337.69	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61962380735045871351352563947746037189767398069960776455040567750304235670037"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
619560485363314289163847070597824802415581416085257056714…	2026-09-16	Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.145000	0.140000	0.150000	0.010000	170992.85	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61956048536331428916384707059782480241558141608525705671477344792920313779730"}	2026-09-16 20:45
582122695178968840153384697752946899762026824309718829049…	2026-09-16	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	—	—	—	—	0.00	2026-09-15 14:03	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"58212269517896884015338469775294689976202682430971882904931336575860619991827"}	2026-09-16 20:45
578762142969530407059149543522197424236289121736534094226…	2026-09-16	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the nex…	No	Politics	2027-04-29 20:00	0.887500	0.881000	0.894000	0.013000	802565.89	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57876214296953040705914954352219742423628912173653409422651199206441027151468"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
572162725645295484646864636912368119919560322012937867903…	2026-09-16	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.969500	0.969000	0.970000	0.001000	5169045.07	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57216272564529548464686463691236811991956032201293786790337952253964682584376"}	2026-09-16 20:45