Prediction markets (Finance/Politics)

core.prediction_snapshots

One price per market per day, from first sighting on UW's unusual list to resolution. seen_via says whether the market was on the list that day.

759 rowsCSV — whole table, not this view

Sources in this table

uw_predictions759 rowsexportable

active:outcome = Yes×sorted by as_of ↑×

asset_idtext	as_of ↑date	markettext	outcometext	categorytext	resolves_attimestamp with time zone	mid_pricenumeric	best_bidnumeric	best_asknumeric	spread

857798513793417764583300368515481143811760939532025428635…	2026-09-15	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	Finance	2026-12-08 19:00	0.885000	0.880000	0.890000	0.010000	438051.56	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"85779851379341776458330036851548114381176093953202542863538086591922931585951"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
837834894546594208076797235748400326600023267100451238655…	2026-09-15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.175000	0.170000	0.180000	0.010000	5482703.24	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"83783489454659420807679723574840032660002326710045123865554753994450797728825"}
824518776291711202158630957865362129942237799595235544686…	2026-09-15	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.465000	0.460000	0.470000	0.010000	427512.76	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"82451877629171120215863095786536212994223779959523554468642312484613145998263"}
759490790723005116356036002065672277387031608559005477780…	2026-09-15	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.365000	0.360000	0.370000	0.010000	891773.94	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"75949079072300511635603600206567227738703160855900547778099294726738851616000"}
733235589739108047748976128926669728895843930926410187299…	2026-09-15	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-18 23:59	0.989000	0.988000	0.990000	0.002000	179646.00	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"73323558973910804774897612892666972889584393092641018729960853480391859765967"}
638425290687100057161693253803154703590477497866107786473…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.875000	0.870000	0.880000	0.010000	7224654.31	2026-09-15 20:44	0.870000	106121.2729	4.075758	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63842529068710005716169325380315470359047749786610778647370693404952498013178"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
622278478531323029432702918801560608806962262451080224857…	2026-09-15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.485000	0.470000	0.500000	0.030000	838092.40	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"6222784785313230294327029188015606088069622624510802248578044329127504364661"}
619560485363314289163847070597824802415581416085257056714…	2026-09-15	Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.160000	0.150000	0.170000	0.020000	164683.96	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61956048536331428916384707059782480241558141608525705671477344792920313779730"}	2026-09-15 20:45
582122695178968840153384697752946899762026824309718829049…	2026-09-15	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	—	—	—	—	0.00	2026-09-15 14:03	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"58212269517896884015338469775294689976202682430971882904931336575860619991827"}	2026-09-15 20:45
577481380850227197603457723100407038485673778224001328420…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.001500	0.001000	0.002000	0.001000	27981819.59	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57748138085022719760345772310040703848567377822400132842014290209986511882046"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
561528276087598523186850800805695987623853689664331506391…	2026-09-15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the S…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.115000	0.110000	0.120000	0.010000	8691529.07	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"5615282760875985231868508008056959876238536896643315063916840237042205273721"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
559714704163462506831607357043995702470111093353314067521…	2026-09-15	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	Finance	2026-12-08 19:00	0.905000	0.900000	0.910000	0.010000	1983614.67	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55971470416346250683160735704399570247011109335331406752116975462530324793173"}	2026-09-15 20:45
551597227614180130441264142766806022703180008416906896848…	2026-09-15	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.375000	0.370000	0.380000	0.010000	2548641.88	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
540572489883630359741431801948090827930110925108994000873…	2026-09-15	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Ru…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.991000	0.990000	0.992000	0.002000	22557049.37	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54057248988363035974143180194809082793011092510899400087326333477908849736030"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
498210651814734197981469572674800155061027111606607186366…	2026-09-15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.755000	0.750000	0.760000	0.010000	577645.66	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49821065181473419798146957267480015506102711160660718636601116902870701340131"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
439765119022681110416338667995550373303174273154540568470…	2026-09-15	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.220000	0.210000	0.230000	0.020000	389845.20	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"43976511902268111041633866799555037330317427315454056847054364885183934986197"}
354804859281476944225223172981600811946037668651024881549…	2026-09-15	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	Finance	2027-06-30 20:00	0.560000	0.550000	0.570000	0.020000	128007.34	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"35480485928147694422522317298160081194603766865102488154902775756915955129166"}	2026-09-15 20:45
347329888869815101678743898457088328086272843798401313512…	2026-09-15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.635000	0.630000	0.640000	0.010000	434605.88	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"34732988886981510167874389845708832808627284379840131351229635795767825787404"}
237055837363487065339885108397594338210531138140257664220…	2026-09-15	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market…	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 19:59	0.870500	0.870000	0.871000	0.001000	2115527.28	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"23705583736348706533988510839759433821053113814025766422082583385077433681175"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
209157695206498922538911521168146450670700242231855179567…	2026-09-15	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next R…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.755000	0.750000	0.760000	0.010000	4907449.43	2026-09-15 20:42	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20915769520649892253891152116814645067070024223185517956799957803974344024878"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
206372177129978645538674756692782387273268587041930910401…	2026-09-15	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first roun…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.463000	0.457000	0.469000	0.012000	929478.07	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20637217712997864553867475669278238727326858704193091040111183987981733729683"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
146966591495774779415947353517201867864922403144882182880…	2026-09-15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.450000	0.430000	0.470000	0.040000	382475.55	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"1469665914957747794159473535172018678649224031448821828800084553716875180650"}
111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462…	2026-09-15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.605000	0.600000	0.610000	0.010000	3415751.64	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518…	2026-09-15	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.865000	0.860000	0.870000	0.010000	721669.92	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518430389053088403535939"}
106865169592299548286587696300190957552253330566906307858…	2026-09-15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.299000	0.289000	0.309000	0.020000	2667855.09	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"106865169592299548286587696300190957552253330566906307858266701916595931430747"}
106186969588053884502739828065662756020867203952742643544…	2026-09-15	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by Se…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.926000	0.922000	0.930000	0.008000	756667.67	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"10618696958805388450273982806566275602086720395274264354492776873006123003601"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
102682832966209969978965796495958715590593079468512867290…	2026-09-15	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state el…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.655000	0.650000	0.660000	0.010000	524343.93	2026-09-15 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"102682832966209969978965796495958715590593079468512867290824407541600306279619"}	2026-09-15 20:45	2026-09-15 20:45
101040420236481079077393026772174192261262803877417817462…	2026-09-15	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.975000	0.974000	0.976000	0.002000	938522.78	2026-09-15 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"101040420236481079077393026772174192261262803877417817462744147440746788606483"}	2026-09-15 20:45
904645066021363507677847067831895067278279517569415780154…	2026-09-16	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.931000	0.925000	0.937000	0.012000	303213.14	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"90464506602136350767784706783189506727827951756941578015494993747105229931522"}	2026-09-16 20:45
877129206732522975092001510453910152624490557648806599077…	2026-09-16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.325000	0.320000	0.330000	0.010000	2756338.01	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"87712920673252297509200151045391015262449055764880659907762503287643101055970"}
860112292879503650435191178520416146517674558893246821126…	2026-09-16	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.608000	0.607000	0.609000	0.002000	19163910.81	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"86011229287950365043519117852041614651767455889324682112682327985496937935368"}
837834894546594208076797235748400326600023267100451238655…	2026-09-16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.175000	0.170000	0.180000	0.010000	5638977.54	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"83783489454659420807679723574840032660002326710045123865554753994450797728825"}
824518776291711202158630957865362129942237799595235544686…	2026-09-16	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.645000	0.640000	0.650000	0.010000	979947.27	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"82451877629171120215863095786536212994223779959523554468642312484613145998263"}
759490790723005116356036002065672277387031608559005477780…	2026-09-16	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.375000	0.370000	0.380000	0.010000	911064.96	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"75949079072300511635603600206567227738703160855900547778099294726738851616000"}
622278478531323029432702918801560608806962262451080224857…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.710000	0.690000	0.730000	0.040000	1050276.08	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"6222784785313230294327029188015606088069622624510802248578044329127504364661"}
619560485363314289163847070597824802415581416085257056714…	2026-09-16	Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.145000	0.140000	0.150000	0.010000	170992.85	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61956048536331428916384707059782480241558141608525705671477344792920313779730"}	2026-09-16 20:45
582122695178968840153384697752946899762026824309718829049…	2026-09-16	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	—	—	—	—	0.00	2026-09-15 14:03	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"58212269517896884015338469775294689976202682430971882904931336575860619991827"}	2026-09-16 20:45
551597227614180130441264142766806022703180008416906896848…	2026-09-16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.455000	0.450000	0.460000	0.010000	4563392.56	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
540572489883630359741431801948090827930110925108994000873…	2026-09-16	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Ru…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.992000	0.991000	0.993000	0.002000	22637551.83	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54057248988363035974143180194809082793011092510899400087326333477908849736030"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
498210651814734197981469572674800155061027111606607186366…	2026-09-16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.775000	0.770000	0.780000	0.010000	611963.91	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49821065181473419798146957267480015506102711160660718636601116902870701340131"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
439765119022681110416338667995550373303174273154540568470…	2026-09-16	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.215000	0.210000	0.220000	0.010000	412685.49	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"43976511902268111041633866799555037330317427315454056847054364885183934986197"}
365955751971998463982674819723851806439519858225051874777…	2026-09-16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.785000	0.780000	0.790000	0.010000	284011.43	2026-09-16 20:44	0.790000	6421.1138	0.084388	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"36595575197199846398267481972385180643951985822505187477756829088194676076340"}
354804859281476944225223172981600811946037668651024881549…	2026-09-16	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	Yes	Finance	2027-06-30 20:00	0.530000	0.520000	0.540000	0.020000	125390.59	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"35480485928147694422522317298160081194603766865102488154902775756915955129166"}	2026-09-16 20:45
347329888869815101678743898457088328086272843798401313512…	2026-09-16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.645000	0.640000	0.650000	0.010000	592650.61	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"34732988886981510167874389845708832808627284379840131351229635795767825787404"}
237055837363487065339885108397594338210531138140257664220…	2026-09-16	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market…	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 19:59	0.914500	0.914000	0.915000	0.001000	2304406.44	2026-09-16 20:44	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"23705583736348706533988510839759433821053113814025766422082583385077433681175"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
209157695206498922538911521168146450670700242231855179567…	2026-09-16	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next R…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.735000	0.730000	0.740000	0.010000	5976154.30	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20915769520649892253891152116814645067070024223185517956799957803974344024878"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
206372177129978645538674756692782387273268587041930910401…	2026-09-16	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first roun…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.449000	0.444000	0.454000	0.010000	852236.11	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20637217712997864553867475669278238727326858704193091040111183987981733729683"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
146966591495774779415947353517201867864922403144882182880…	2026-09-16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.260000	0.250000	0.270000	0.020000	577546.52	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"1469665914957747794159473535172018678649224031448821828800084553716875180650"}
111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462…	2026-09-16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.535000	0.530000	0.540000	0.010000	5956767.43	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748"}	2026-09-16 20:45	2026-09-16 20:45
110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518…	2026-09-16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.925000	0.920000	0.930000	0.010000	652889.87	2026-09-16 20:45	—	—	—	tracked	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518430389053088403535939"}