Prediction markets (Finance/Politics)

core.prediction_snapshots

One price per market per day, from first sighting on UW's unusual list to resolution. seen_via says whether the market was on the list that day.

826 rowsCSV — whole table, not this view

Sources in this table

uw_predictions826 rowsexportable

active:seen_via = unusual×

asset_idtext	as_of ↓date	markettext	outcometext	categorytext	resolves_attimestamp with time zone	mid_pricenumeric	best_bidnumeric	best_asknumeric	spread

860112292879503650435191178520416146517674558893246821126…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.631000	0.627000	0.635000	0.008000	18919238.99	2026-09-14 18:32	0.626000	5907.1716	1.317778	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"86011229287950365043519117852041614651767455889324682112682327985496937935368"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
857798513793417764583300368515481143811760939532025428635…	2026-09-14	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	Finance	2026-12-08 19:00	0.880000	0.870000	0.890000	0.020000	230708.65	2026-09-14 18:32	0.880000	6928.9755	0.798291	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"85779851379341776458330036851548114381176093953202542863538086591922931585951"}	2026-09-14 18:32
857235160700777308831059090493880615970491732816132019100…	2026-09-14	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	Finance	2027-06-30 20:00	0.425000	0.420000	0.430000	0.010000	82794.05	2026-09-14 18:31	0.410000	6128.9994	1.020000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"85723516070077730883105909049388061597049173281613201910087943908235778734129"}	2026-09-14 18:32
838837340927581334036618189606374018289865425944236527455…	2026-09-14	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-07 19:59	0.942500	0.937000	0.948000	0.011000	335941.26	2026-09-14 18:32	0.951000	32636.7153	1.240952	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"83883734092758133403661818960637401828986542594423652745565198052267379022496"}	2026-09-14 18:32
837834894546594208076797235748400326600023267100451238655…	2026-09-14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.175000	0.170000	0.180000	0.010000	4997095.49	2026-09-14 18:32	0.180000	9006.3229	1.450370	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"83783489454659420807679723574840032660002326710045123865554753994450797728825"}
834382159788561801458728058213909198406214350871041318486…	2026-09-14	Will Friedrich Merz visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.720000	0.700000	0.740000	0.040000	4410.37	2026-09-14 18:32	0.670000	17897.0550	0.899221	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"8343821597885618014587280582139091984062143508710413184869540112147713995559"}
824518776291711202158630957865362129942237799595235544686…	2026-09-14	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.515000	0.510000	0.520000	0.010000	407601.56	2026-09-14 18:32	0.530000	17819.2232	2.675932	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"82451877629171120215863095786536212994223779959523554468642312484613145998263"}
814704650806561500884828862983567836210628029191100967630…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	—	0.999000	—	—	27284301.56	2026-09-14 18:32	0.999000	77887.7843	0.857143	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"81470465080656150088482886298356783621062802919110096763062861781139262816347"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
814559954595877758213114204886657589906815946151130795188…	2026-09-14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 15?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 16:29	0.989500	0.987000	0.992000	0.005000	146145.47	2026-09-14 18:32	0.987000	11015.9479	0.222564	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"81455995459587775821311420488665758990681594615113079518876286804187992055554"}
794073683123256426491296632810215051369749191237850621851…	2026-09-14	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats i…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	—	0.999000	—	—	127093.56	2026-09-14 18:33	0.999000	6362.4451	0.033568	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"79407368312325642649129663281021505136974919123785062185108115301590083588838"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
790856282012811224818835785948115945922608242523730597970…	2026-09-14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-04-29 20:00	0.943500	0.943000	0.944000	0.001000	991143.27	2026-09-14 18:33	0.941000	10320.8441	0.028189	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"79085628201281122481883578594811594592260824252373059797032000397035131450743"}
789070047415782903829219194483768472055726980880458675997…	2026-09-14	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 14?	No	Politics	2026-09-14 19:59	0.997500	0.997000	0.998000	0.001000	206461.70	2026-09-14 18:32	0.997000	13795.4679	1.482574	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"7890700474157829038292191944837684720557269808804586759979391214043839466430"}	2026-09-14 18:32
786323950833106707343152055020612496023190696539159323201…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.635000	0.630000	0.640000	0.010000	1995184.60	2026-09-14 18:32	0.640000	40321.4436	0.225820	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"78632395083310670734315205502061249602319069653915932320155846460019107676757"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
777376030497043714019851430302035511306245207849258154732…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-10-31 19:59	0.655000	0.650000	0.660000	0.010000	2509740.50	2026-09-14 18:32	0.660000	14028.8873	1.460952	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"77737603049704371401985143030203551130624520784925815473217168646825527075459"}
759490790723005116356036002065672277387031608559005477780…	2026-09-14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.405000	0.400000	0.410000	0.010000	675880.55	2026-09-14 18:32	0.400000	7279.4079	1.025116	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"75949079072300511635603600206567227738703160855900547778099294726738851616000"}
741952205861292373492588031790826345422845035383200006379…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.992500	0.992000	0.993000	0.001000	28511397.32	2026-09-14 18:32	0.992000	328920.7086	0.983857	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"74195220586129237349258803179082634542284503538320000637909015632982564961602"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
740765688468667141425038470267607027135556437780387902204…	2026-09-14	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.855000	0.850000	0.860000	0.010000	2775277.99	2026-09-14 18:32	0.850000	6651.2545	0.153257	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"74076568846866714142503847026760702713555643778038790220454009063912340064073"}
736219880206384639899751465585761631088358740412345817490…	2026-09-14	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.485000	0.480000	0.490000	0.010000	404468.56	2026-09-14 18:32	0.480000	11684.2964	1.320000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"73621988020638463989975146558576163108835874041234581749056831089553559830214"}
733235589739108047748976128926669728895843930926410187299…	2026-09-14	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-18 23:59	0.890000	0.870000	0.910000	0.040000	119295.71	2026-09-14 18:32	0.880000	6203.5644	2.482646	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"73323558973910804774897612892666972889584393092641018729960853480391859765967"}
730563024980408563549639986990576937229430271615903444732…	2026-09-14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.962500	0.962000	0.963000	0.001000	13354002.71	2026-09-14 18:30	0.963000	10995.6901	2.806916	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"7305630249804085635496399869905769372294302716159034447326228509068694952392"}
711994909579240418867354111619572767777786859915364155267…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.715000	0.711000	0.719000	0.008000	521136.14	2026-09-14 18:32	0.710000	64508.8089	0.811324	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"71199490957924041886735411161957276777778685991536415526722488030509401889440"}
694986485568188058349458951986700723447215101278306606680…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.335000	0.330000	0.340000	0.010000	48478.53	2026-09-14 18:31	0.330000	9997.9318	3.960000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"69498648556818805834945895198670072344721510127830660668063083785228750351236"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
694146134655431366360774186239195771903000925636070848554…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-14 19:59	0.997500	0.997000	0.998000	0.001000	263355.36	2026-09-14 18:31	0.998000	29883.9374	1.960101	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"69414613465543136636077418623919577190300092563607084855456415038243186412684"}
688818401091142455217972750255962569283846132511084298084…	2026-09-14	Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes?	No	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.934000	0.929000	0.939000	0.010000	131961.78	2026-09-14 18:32	0.928000	5048.5942	0.268490	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"68881840109114245521797275025596256928384613251108429808491092208111156621485"}
676188477881608354275335053977961720108459466423472965578…	2026-09-14	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sw…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.875000	0.870000	0.880000	0.010000	280422.24	2026-09-14 18:32	0.880000	132661.7154	1.254906	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"6761884778816083542753350539779617201084594664234729655783875952381923983097"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
639152872719406880648701729914364897755875413354573703553…	2026-09-14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.355000	0.350000	0.360000	0.010000	502740.28	2026-09-14 18:32	0.350000	5046.9278	0.640000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63915287271940688064870172991436489775587541335457370355314489349033951709373"}
638425290687100057161693253803154703590477497866107786473…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.875000	0.870000	0.880000	0.010000	6744433.82	2026-09-14 18:30	0.870000	1343760.1249	6.706374	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63842529068710005716169325380315470359047749786610778647370693404952498013178"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
630283026420228182855147388100408918213908530857243229957…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.285000	0.281000	0.289000	0.008000	521136.14	2026-09-14 18:32	0.281000	7380.3751	2.023405	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"63028302642022818285514738810040891821390853085724322995706281952487897762762"}
622278478531323029432702918801560608806962262451080224857…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.730000	0.720000	0.740000	0.020000	763561.47	2026-09-14 18:32	0.750000	7882.2978	0.600000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"6222784785313230294327029188015606088069622624510802248578044329127504364661"}
619623807350458713513525639477460371897673980699607764550…	2026-09-14	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in …	No	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.762500	0.762000	0.763000	0.001000	493952.16	2026-09-14 18:32	0.762000	11186.1773	0.412083	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61962380735045871351352563947746037189767398069960776455040567750304235670037"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
619560485363314289163847070597824802415581416085257056714…	2026-09-14	Houthis enter Aden by September 30, 2026?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.135000	0.130000	0.140000	0.010000	159903.93	2026-09-14 18:32	0.140000	6360.4487	0.656667	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"61956048536331428916384707059782480241558141608525705671477344792920313779730"}	2026-09-14 18:32
582122695178968840153384697752946899762026824309718829049…	2026-09-14	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.974500	0.972000	0.977000	0.005000	258968.78	2026-09-14 18:32	0.972000	10488.0374	0.584086	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"58212269517896884015338469775294689976202682430971882904931336575860619991827"}	2026-09-14 18:32
578762142969530407059149543522197424236289121736534094226…	2026-09-14	Will David Lisnard advance to the second round of the nex…	No	Politics	2027-04-29 20:00	0.899000	0.897000	0.901000	0.004000	425760.72	2026-09-14 18:32	0.897000	8794.2431	0.493827	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57876214296953040705914954352219742423628912173653409422651199206441027151468"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
577481380850227197603457723100407038485673778224001328420…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.002500	0.002000	0.003000	0.001000	27623249.09	2026-09-14 18:32	0.002000	11443.9007	3.977143	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57748138085022719760345772310040703848567377822400132842014290209986511882046"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
572162725645295484646864636912368119919560322012937867903…	2026-09-14	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.969500	0.969000	0.970000	0.001000	5127626.55	2026-09-14 18:33	0.969000	8440.2734	0.006887	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"57216272564529548464686463691236811991956032201293786790337952253964682584376"}	2026-09-14 18:32
564659332200820228357008170639461746359097255077344162485…	2026-09-14	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.855000	0.850000	0.860000	0.010000	1759598.60	2026-09-14 18:32	0.850000	19137.7028	1.023030	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"56465933220082022835700817063946174635909725507734416248556389304448520396318"}
561528276087598523186850800805695987623853689664331506391…	2026-09-14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the S…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 20:00	0.125000	0.120000	0.130000	0.010000	5398596.03	2026-09-14 18:30	0.120000	325729.4140	12.957143	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"5615282760875985231868508008056959876238536896643315063916840237042205273721"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
559714704163462506831607357043995702470111093353314067521…	2026-09-14	Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	Finance	2026-12-08 19:00	0.885000	0.880000	0.890000	0.010000	1698827.35	2026-09-14 18:32	0.870000	19858.1272	0.601928	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55971470416346250683160735704399570247011109335331406752116975462530324793173"}	2026-09-14 18:32
551597227614180130441264142766806022703180008416906896848…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the …	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.365000	0.360000	0.370000	0.010000	1995171.84	2026-09-14 18:32	0.370000	6191.5952	0.520000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"55159722761418013044126414276680602270318000841690689684819994448621694923050"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
551337802515919133770431646071004302666890163620451140238…	2026-09-14	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.845000	0.840000	0.850000	0.010000	487320.12	2026-09-14 18:31	0.840000	5954.4028	0.349885	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"5513378025159191337704316460710043026668901636204511402381351948151562535480"}
545359399362524949902377235799883362379103362810082918083…	2026-09-14	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.780000	0.770000	0.790000	0.020000	208472.93	2026-09-14 18:32	0.790000	10974.9583	1.304609	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54535939936252494990237723579988336237910336281008291808351435211825298252708"}	2026-09-14 18:32
540572489883630359741431801948090827930110925108994000873…	2026-09-14	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Ru…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.990500	0.990000	0.991000	0.001000	22450236.12	2026-09-14 18:33	0.990000	5674.5613	0.013482	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54057248988363035974143180194809082793011092510899400087326333477908849736030"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
540183727272525707669144952049465545783017838520968652115…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.945000	0.930000	0.960000	0.030000	286979.75	2026-09-14 18:32	0.950000	10070.4251	0.120000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"54018372727252570766914495204946554578301783852096865211527480718618130665409"}
523348780188146859725470148750091600547171201711003480696…	2026-09-14	Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in …	Yes	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	—	0.999000	—	—	125646.83	2026-09-14 18:32	0.999000	5853.2152	0.146801	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"52334878018814685972547014875009160054717120171100348069688980422350429906466"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
502305252920113973616660321285575666878111844985156935639…	2026-09-14	Trump out as President by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 23:59	0.995000	0.994000	0.996000	0.002000	1241089.34	2026-09-14 18:33	0.995000	25177.0769	0.126727	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"50230525292011397361666032128557566687811184498515693563902400561445822555625"}	2026-09-14 18:32
502021450557510225228837012720236299131376560046509961185…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 8 to Se…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.091500	0.091000	0.092000	0.001000	167881.09	2026-09-14 18:32	0.092000	9376.8464	4.440000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"50202145055751022522883701272023629913137656004650996118519929154953683657035"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
499522872446145757347239137576490879020243392380071875856…	2026-09-14	Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sw…	No	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.125000	0.120000	0.130000	0.010000	331318.76	2026-09-14 18:32	0.120000	8580.6596	3.666061	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49952287244614575734723913757649087902024339238007187585607375183859292977482"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
498210651814734197981469572674800155061027111606607186366…	2026-09-14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.755000	0.750000	0.760000	0.010000	381606.36	2026-09-14 18:32	0.750000	15805.0531	1.507719	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49821065181473419798146957267480015506102711160660718636601116902870701340131"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
496801044077036599910134990819084835354450017698659671393…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.765000	0.760000	0.770000	0.010000	55537.98	2026-09-14 18:32	0.770000	24238.5819	3.828634	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"49680104407703659991013499081908483535445001769865967139333008259807233372469"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
489970745072403596167117480645971014290842208022732690429…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.793500	0.787000	0.800000	0.013000	980078.81	2026-09-14 18:32	0.791000	5414.8001	1.027196	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"48997074507240359616711748064597101429084220802273269042911597047117219823609"}