Prediction markets (Finance/Politics)

core.prediction_snapshots

One price per market per day, from first sighting on UW's unusual list to resolution. seen_via says whether the market was on the list that day.

1,036 rowsCSV

Sources in this table

uw_predictions1,036 rowsexportable

asset_idtext	as_of ↓date	markettext	outcometext	categorytext	resolves_attimestamp with time zone	mid_pricenumeric	best_bidnumeric	best_asknumeric	spreadnumeric

253266682071087304738807951740232540902011392663220984641…	2026-09-14	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between Sep…	No	Politics	2026-09-13 19:59	0.950000	0.930000	0.970000	0.040000	92377.95	2026-09-14 18:32	0.940000	13345.2051	0.192464	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"25326668207108730473880795174023254090201139266322098464178579042361885439154"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
251144737232417240243666019627598828544045011868148192976…	2026-09-14	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	Politics	2026-09-04 19:59	0.042000	0.039000	0.045000	0.006000	463235.08	2026-09-14 18:32	0.038000	11453.4135	4.740000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"25114473723241724024366601962759882854404501186814819297691389024756879650626"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
237055837363487065339885108397594338210531138140257664220…	2026-09-14	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market…	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 19:59	0.809500	0.809000	0.810000	0.001000	1511993.13	2026-09-14 18:32	0.810000	8320.8009	0.959530	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"23705583736348706533988510839759433821053113814025766422082583385077433681175"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
229774404178191270977012679058342452855842773305709563007…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.988000	0.987000	0.989000	0.002000	223186.40	2026-09-14 18:32	0.988000	8257.9112	1.500222	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"22977440417819127097701267905834245285584277330570956300766252082258388506110"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
209487012212681185769927766836850283089010514127683546135…	2026-09-14	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on September 14?	Up	Finance	2026-09-14 17:00	—	0.999000	—	—	108682.85	2026-09-14 18:32	0.999000	6538.5356	1.381905	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20948701221268118576992776683685028308901051412768354613538604440666205764757"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
209157695206498922538911521168146450670700242231855179567…	2026-09-14	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next R…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.755000	0.750000	0.760000	0.010000	4646272.80	2026-09-14 18:30	0.750000	67172.4657	4.976667	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20915769520649892253891152116814645067070024223185517956799957803974344024878"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
206372177129978645538674756692782387273268587041930910401…	2026-09-14	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first roun…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-03 20:00	0.454500	0.448000	0.461000	0.013000	599005.78	2026-09-14 18:32	0.464000	10182.0465	1.386953	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"20637217712997864553867475669278238727326858704193091040111183987981733729683"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
198842022043630905918459743649275134324193945372295946830…	2026-09-14	Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	0.115000	0.110000	0.120000	0.010000	285241.16	2026-09-14 18:32	0.120000	8781.6841	6.706061	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"19884202204363090591845974364927513432419394537229594683046302661092511466716"}	2026-09-14 18:32
181258939106180995523200067738284698103715561257714681224…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to Se…	No	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.997000	0.996000	0.998000	0.002000	175776.40	2026-09-14 18:32	0.997000	22515.9612	1.006700	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"18125893910618099552320006773828469810371556125771468122492350319547540709643"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
151194742176521898059874813638291527341331488079078046624…	2026-09-14	Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by September 18, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-18 23:59	0.110000	0.090000	0.130000	0.040000	119295.71	2026-09-14 18:32	0.090000	9798.2624	3.388571	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"15119474217652189805987481363829152734133148807907804662486639655176427373645"}	2026-09-14 18:32
146966591495774779415947353517201867864922403144882182880…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.385000	0.370000	0.400000	0.030000	507854.03	2026-09-14 18:32	0.360000	14788.8362	1.892121	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"1469665914957747794159473535172018678649224031448821828800084553716875180650"}	2026-09-14 18:32
132892191280217821455206880329924942261509280652160414586…	2026-09-14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-12-30 19:00	0.595000	0.590000	0.600000	0.010000	675880.55	2026-09-14 18:32	0.600000	8299.3272	0.714943	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"13289219128021782145520688032992494226150928065216041458658097032141632174656"}	2026-09-14 18:32
125754825624000585755692407872868337874051158162334079022…	2026-09-14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?	No	Politics	2026-09-14 20:00	—	0.999000	—	—	4304710.26	2026-09-14 18:32	0.999000	10205.6242	1.000000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"12575482562400058575569240787286833787405115816233407902290732716716915814118"}	2026-09-14 18:32
115351075585746600277716377744935410125916932950844626289…	2026-09-14	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next R…	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.245000	0.240000	0.250000	0.010000	4609054.80	2026-09-14 18:32	0.240000	21263.9871	4.852381	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"115351075585746600277716377744935410125916932950844626289798775482755919708780"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
114063883841008656259693417982724538644229511180554005883…	2026-09-14	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to Se…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-15 12:00	0.665000	0.660000	0.670000	0.010000	48478.53	2026-09-14 18:31	0.670000	18095.7426	4.320000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"114063883841008656259693417982724538644229511180554005883119336066247267433029"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177…	2026-09-14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	No	Politics	2026-10-30 20:00	0.925000	0.920000	0.930000	0.010000	3318031.83	2026-09-14 18:33	0.920000	11123.3185	0.071685	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"112428165813371561912833460698436648539922320261306010177252036814838759682453"}	2026-09-14 18:32
111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247…	2026-09-14	Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in …	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.835000	0.830000	0.840000	0.010000	159947.83	2026-09-14 18:32	0.840000	5215.8911	0.232558	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111939275359890975032145018655554206790945794404155831247918168011182151346383"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059…	2026-09-14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	No	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.987500	0.987000	0.988000	0.001000	5271363.68	2026-09-14 18:33	0.988000	12044.2297	0.006748	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111344475342969784116702975577723982549674037196345086059563486202499238579830"}	2026-09-14 18:32
111298138377563993092134225975136320189301451429785490480…	2026-09-14	Sweden Parliamentary Election: Liberals Win Seats?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-12 20:00	—	0.999000	—	—	229477.56	2026-09-14 18:32	0.999000	25557.0197	0.926801	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111298138377563993092134225975136320189301451429785490480960975987235797764793"}	2026-09-14 18:32
111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462…	2026-09-14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the O…	Yes	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.615000	0.610000	0.620000	0.010000	3026455.21	2026-09-14 18:32	0.620000	28822.5601	0.349290	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"111061902544814266207267295505639408607400625795891618462682726460921782993748"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254…	2026-09-14	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the …	No	Politics	2026-10-28 19:59	0.977500	0.977000	0.978000	0.001000	8917746.71	2026-09-14 18:32	0.977000	27778.4929	0.133619	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110888499829195123034987289109543572302716575133123608254293945182185650232552"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
110531092871817326177676615981488848062239024242021648855…	2026-09-14	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-04 19:59	0.958000	0.955000	0.961000	0.006000	480458.08	2026-09-14 18:32	0.950000	185561.1979	2.737674	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110531092871817326177676615981488848062239024242021648855998953959660629545985"}	2026-09-14 18:32
110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518…	2026-09-14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.915000	0.910000	0.920000	0.010000	650375.06	2026-09-14 18:32	0.920000	13022.1308	0.240000	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"110124369154659006328320349797831539154282530245624469518430389053088403535939"}	2026-09-14 18:32
108318438641119276756487723540426498152248706490125830253…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.615000	0.600000	0.630000	0.030000	507854.03	2026-09-14 18:32	0.600000	11889.0674	1.612075	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"108318438641119276756487723540426498152248706490125830253351171007133496926091"}	2026-09-14 18:32
108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650…	2026-09-14	Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30…	No	Politics	2026-12-31 18:59	0.993500	0.992000	0.995000	0.003000	630535.94	2026-09-14 18:33	0.992000	10759.6491	0.006714	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"108308183073891946533642360856234559374146268200961511650206295005007824881339"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
107382335729882584132242622392619126691496748186166138439…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.491000	0.490000	0.492000	0.002000	2710039.25	2026-09-14 18:32	0.491000	5477.3403	1.184056	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"107382335729882584132242622392619126691496748186166138439329887743369753286473"}	2026-09-14 18:32
106865169592299548286587696300190957552253330566906307858…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Yes	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.509000	0.508000	0.510000	0.002000	2710219.25	2026-09-14 18:32	0.508000	8622.7327	1.624637	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"106865169592299548286587696300190957552253330566906307858266701916595931430747"}	2026-09-14 18:32
106560772629713122434527877371376465451017804649676159774…	2026-09-14	Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elec…	No	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.735000	0.730000	0.740000	0.010000	239763.84	2026-09-14 18:32	0.740000	9065.2031	0.987595	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"106560772629713122434527877371376465451017804649676159774752466805733265212731"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
106186969588053884502739828065662756020867203952742643544…	2026-09-14	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by Se…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.904000	0.900000	0.908000	0.008000	411456.90	2026-09-14 18:32	0.902000	10173.3941	0.334718	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"10618696958805388450273982806566275602086720395274264354492776873006123003601"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
105964405201093262772405016621866393230668268590147803590…	2026-09-14	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-11 19:59	0.952500	0.952000	0.953000	0.001000	386732.76	2026-09-14 18:32	0.949000	38349.2321	1.407843	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"105964405201093262772405016621866393230668268590147803590929677280620246045766"}	2026-09-14 18:32
104196970799436373424174856831098726379541508472048183572…	2026-09-14	Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?	No	Finance	2026-06-16 20:00	0.995500	0.995000	0.996000	0.001000	21786205.96	2026-09-14 18:31	0.997000	22336.7180	1.420060	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"104196970799436373424174856831098726379541508472048183572778073240675394024086"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
103997221867352584036694268795051058245305885496635764341…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.857000	0.852000	0.862000	0.010000	1660997.22	2026-09-14 18:32	0.862000	7630.2060	0.352932	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"10399722186735258403669426879505105824530588549663576434140165306684479906966"}	2026-09-14 18:32
103216878146106839176259085892501749169837749326876123361…	2026-09-14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	Finance	2026-09-30 23:59	0.875000	0.870000	0.880000	0.010000	290710.92	2026-09-14 18:32	0.870000	7099.4554	0.419625	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"103216878146106839176259085892501749169837749326876123361316747114893299247057"}	2026-09-14 18:32
102682832966209969978965796495958715590593079468512867290…	2026-09-14	Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state el…	Yes	Politics	2026-09-19 20:00	0.635000	0.630000	0.640000	0.010000	471257.64	2026-09-14 18:32	0.630000	5737.3586	1.284222	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"102682832966209969978965796495958715590593079468512867290824407541600306279619"}	2026-09-14 18:32	2026-09-14 18:32
102402679475426110774044851720817690724908108674246723425…	2026-09-14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	No	Politics	2026-09-30 19:59	0.915000	0.910000	0.920000	0.010000	409410.73	2026-09-14 18:32	0.920000	14252.8473	0.503369	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"102402679475426110774044851720817690724908108674246723425637890637120301946959"}	2026-09-14 18:32
101040420236481079077393026772174192261262803877417817462…	2026-09-14	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Yes	Politics	2026-09-29 20:00	0.967000	0.965000	0.969000	0.004000	659770.57	2026-09-14 18:32	0.966000	73230.9313	0.161237	unusual	uw_predictions	/api/predictions/market/{asset_id}/liquidity	{"asset_id":"101040420236481079077393026772174192261262803877417817462744147440746788606483"}	2026-09-14 18:32